PP $30 MTT - Final Table Push?

[wpr101]

Yes, he could be raising with any 2 but it more probable that he has better than average because he raied.

[intheflatfield]

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4) Flexibility in surviving the hand


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I agree w/ your some points in your post but, what "real flexiblity after the flop do you have at this point.

[locutus2002]

There are some flops against some opponents you can fold.

KQ9 all one suit not spades, and passive opponent pushes, etc. The fact is all your situations need to be weighed against your $EV of continuing with 4XBB, and your opponents of 10XBB.

I disagree...nobody can just call in this situation since you are just begging to get reraised. Most likely this is an attempted steal and he can literally have any two cards. If you want to go a step further to figre worst case you might also assume that no other player had an ace since they all folded and they also might try to steal with Ax and would likely come in with AT+....so remove 14 cards from the desk and assume 3 aces left and a better kicker... about an 8% chance. Throw in the chance of a pair of 4's or better and you are still only around 12%...far less than the 20% you already have in the pot which makes up for any chance that you might not be favored.

[SpeakEasy]

Fold. He is virtually guaranteed to call, since he is getting 3 to 1 on a call. I would want to take A4s all-in against very few hands, and its very unlikely that he has one of those hands.

[Spiph]

Results:
I reraised all-in thinking he was stealing. He showed AJo. I went out in 9th place.

I figured as much since you posted about it...but I still think you played it right. You fold there and there is a pretty good chance you finish in 9th place anyway.

[West]

regardless of the results of this hand (haven't looked), I would presume villain could be making a raise here with a wide range of hands (and some of the better hands you don't want to be against, I wouldn't expect him to raise like this here) I don't know where your 50% figure comes from, but I would think you are likely to easily be higher than that against his range.

[West]

The thing is, what the villain can do here is bet most flops regardless of what he has. Personally, in his shoes, I would choose between either pushing or betting something like 15k most of the time. I might check if I flopped something really solid that could stand a free card, and with a bad hand and a flop that I would consider likely to hit you (QJT, say I had 86). Basically, the only FE that you would have is when you still have the best hand on the flop. On the other hand, it's entirely possible that you will fold the best hand on the flop when I bet, which is disastrous for you at this point.

Folding on the flop, you will be left with 41k, and will be posting 5k on the next hand. Down to 36k, your fold equity will have pretty much vanished until you win a hand.

I think the situation when you call is a lot more difficult for you than it is for the villain.