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#21
12-02-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: I improve - I check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm very interested in why you checked this turn. [/ QUOTE ] Because if he's ahead he has just about zero danger of losing the hand. [/ QUOTE ] What of the missed value here, though? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] The problem is Max must pay off the LAG once he spikes an Ace, and the LAG called a flop bet after the preflop action made it very likely that Max has a hand like AA/KK/QQ and is raising the flop behind him. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you can deduce this just becaues he's a LAG. That, and we're ahead of two of 2/3rds of that range. [/ QUOTE ] What are you talking about? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, Max is right. Misread your post. 
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#22
12-02-2005, 04:41 PM
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Re: I improve - I check
Bet the turn. You probably have the best hand and now is a good time to make a bet or two from at least the lag. He'll want to see the river card and will pay to. He might not try to run a bluff on the river, nor bet, nor pay you off with a worse hand on the river but he will on the turn. Let him give you a bet to see the river that most likely won't give him a winner. I agree that if you are check-raised on the turn you are now in a tight spot as to whether to pay two more big bets to have a chance at the pot or to get out. I'd bet the turn and go from there. If check-raised I'd pay it off regardless of the river unless there is some read that tells me I'm almost always beat in this spot. I'd call the river and go for an overcall as the hand was actually played out though.
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#23
12-02-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: I improve - I check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm very interested in why you checked this turn. [/ QUOTE ] Because if he's ahead he has just about zero danger of losing the hand. [/ QUOTE ] so are you checking to give people a chance at making a second best hand or because you are worried about someone having a 4? in my oppinion neither one of these is worth the missed value also theres no way im folding the river
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#24
12-02-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: I improve - I check
I must say... I am pretty astounded at the replies to this post.
This turn check is a relatively standard play, for me at least. Not that it is done all of the time but, rather, it is used a certain proportion of the time. First, the more drawless the board is, the safer the play and the less downside. OK, duh, that's obvious. The check behind is a game theory type play (at least the way I think I use it) and is made out of strength. We have the best hand here a huge % of the time. We want to extract big bets. Bear with me... If we bet the turn we may end up dragging the pot right there and winning an additional zero bets. Hopefully.... MP1 will read the check behind as weak and take a stab at it on the river with his J or A. MP3 may have whiffed a CR on the turn (or a CC) with his weak A and either call MP1 or raise. If MP1 checks the river, MP3 may be induced to take a stab at it with air or even a J only or his A. The point being that if hero bets the turn he pretty much is looking at winning zero bets to 3 bets thru the river. By rope a doping the turn and being led into on the river, hero stands to gains more. More intelligent players than I can find the "break even" point of this play by weighting the likelihood of each of the choices and I would love to see that analysis. Lastly, I raise/call this river because you have heretofore underrepresented your hand. Villain just can't read you as holding top 2. Forgive the disjointedness of the foregoing... I running out of the office.
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