How to play with 2 cards to come?

[Sandwich]

*Also, it never occurred to me to fold JTo pre-flop in middle position with one limper and three more to act behind me. Doesn't Sklansky recommend playing Group 5 hands in an unraised pot in middle position? Especially with a nut-straight hand like JT, and at a loose table? I have no doubt that the more experienced players who suggested folding are correct... but what exactly is the reasoning?

[BIGRED]

I think the reasoning is that 1 limper is not enough. And also you might get raised by someone after you which will chase out many players. If it were suited I would like them more.

[Nate tha' Great]

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Doesn't Sklansky recommend playing Group 5 hands in an unraised pot in middle position?


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I don't think Sklansky wants you to play or fold a particular set of hands from a paricular position off the Button. I think he wants you to look at things like implied odds (higher if more limpers in front of you), table texture both before (are you likely to get raised by one of the players yet to act?) and after (will your opponents pay you off if you hit?) the flop. The hand groupings are just a guideline.

I also think that Sklansky somewhat overrates JTo. I probably play it more than some people around here, but it's usually after *several* limpers and/or on the Button, and the game needs to be pretty soft.

[BIGRED]

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Thanks to everyone who responded. I'm sure that my calling a flop bet using the odds for two cards to come was a significant leak in my game...

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The leak was not planning for the possibility that you will most likely miss the turn. Once you estimated the odds of getting your outs in the next two cards, then you need to plan to STAY TO SEE THE NEXT TWO CARDS.... But to justify "chasing" to the river, you need to make sure the pot will grow to the proper amount when you get there.

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I had already calculated odds for all number of outs for (1) two cards to come before the turn and (2) next card before the river.

It looks like I need to calculate odds for all number of outs for NEXT card before the turn.

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I think this is "almost correct". Using this rule will give you a rough estimate of how "correct" you are to make the call, but not quite. I read an explanation for this in Skalansky's Hold'em Poker under the "Implied Odds" section. Take a look there and you will see what I mean.

Again, the general rule is

(1) Figure out how far you will "chase".
(2) Figure out how much it will cost you from that point on.
(3) Will there be enough people "chasing" so that the pot will grow to justify the odds.

In general, when you're in the heat of the battle, no one really figures out the exact probability. I think as long as you have a good feel for the odds, then it's good enough. But take a look at the section I refer to in Skalansky's book. I had to read a few time to get it, but I think it will answer your question.

[Ken Morris]

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I see that your formula is correct, but why doesn't my formula work out to the same number as yours? What am I factoring in that causes me to come out higher?

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The trick here is that we're not really working with two separate events. Statistically speaking, we can't talk about "turn OR river," we must consider "turn AND river" as a single event. If we want to pair our kicker on the turn "or" river, we must think in terms of "not pairing turn AND not pairing river."

He's a trivial example. What is the probablility of tossing a coin three times and getting at least one head? That is: head or head or head. It is incorrect to calculate: 1/2 + (or) 1/2 + (or) 1/2 = greater than 100%. Correct is: 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8 that we will flip "not heads AND not heads AND not heads." This result is then subtracted from 1 to get 7 chances in 8 of getting at least one head each time we flip three times. Note that the "event" in this case is "three flips of the coin," not one coin flipped three times.

Here's a practical example to chew on. We flop a weak flush draw, and would like to see ONE more flush card but not two. What percentage of the time will the turn and river produce exactly 1 more flush card?

[BIGRED]

Thanks for the follow up, but I see what I missed.
If I were to use my logic, (although yours is much simpler) I should have done:

P(hit the turn) + P(miss the turn) * P(hit the river)
= (4/47) + (43/47)(4/46)
= around 16.5%