TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND

Vince Lepore · #1 11-22-2004, 04:42 PM

15-30 in the cutoff with Ak spades with 6 other opponents. I raised all six called. Flop was QJ2 one spade. It was checked to me one off button and i bet hoping to get a free card on turn and the fact that my hand could be the best hand. The reason i am posting this is after telling this hand to a friend of mine who plays for a living said it was an ill advised bet. I told him his play was weak(and scard poker) to not bet cause his reasoning is he couldnt have the best hand most of the time and didnt want to be charged more than necessary to draw. He then said there was chance to get free card but it was on flop when only one left to act behind. And trying for free card on turn wouldnt work often enough to bet into 6 others on a QJ2 flop which is a flop that will usually hit alot of opponents. And could get checkraised or worse very easily and get caught in a whipsaw on flop when i could have easily checked the flop. Which is correct play?

Matt Flynn · #2 11-22-2004, 04:51 PM

vince haven't really played limit for 2 years but seems to me there are too many bets in the pot not to bet your overcards and gutshot and backdoor draw there. that's more important than getting a free card, although that can be a nice side benefit. you at least want all the medium/little connector hands and king-little and ace-little out.

matt

Manzanita · #3 11-22-2004, 04:51 PM

Vince,

Since you are going to the river with your hand I can see your friend's point of view of trying to get there for the minimum price. However given the size of the pot and the strength of your hand I like betting this flop (especially since you believe there is a chance that you may be able to take a free card on the turn).

-- Manzanita

slicvic · #4 11-22-2004, 05:28 PM

I don't like the bet here, particularly if there was a two flush. With 6 callers for 2-bets PF and QJ flop you will almost never have the best hand and will likely not even have your fair share of pot equity (your overcards make too many likely straights). Wouldn't it make you sick to have it be 3-4 bets back to you? Also, I can't see why it would help to get Kx and Ax out now since they may bet into you on the turn (if an A or K turns) and you can pop it if nobody else has yet. I also might pop it if a spade comes on the turn (and obviously if a 10 falls).

Senor Choppy · #5 11-22-2004, 06:16 PM

I think the best way to explain it to your friend would be to post another AK hand with an entirely different set of circumstances on 2+2 where betting is a much better option and hope that no one recognizes it as such.

MMMMMM · #6 11-22-2004, 06:41 PM

I like betting here: you might clean up some outs, get a free card, make more money if you hit. If you get check-raised well heck, you are going to the river anyway barring extreme circumstances, and there are already so many bets in the pot that I don't think being scared of a wittle bitty check-raise should be a major concern.

Noo Yawk · #7 11-22-2004, 06:50 PM

Hi Vince,

It would help a bit more to have player or game type descriptions.

If(A) you believe you could get smaller pairs or gutshots that hurt your A or K outs to fold, giving you a better shot at winning a biggish pot plus a good chance of getting a free card on the turn, then betting is fine.

If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

If A is closer then betting is better. If B is closer then checking is better.

mmcd · #8 11-22-2004, 06:53 PM

If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

I think the types of players that like to check/call on this flop also like to check to the flop bettor on the turn.

slicvic · #9 11-22-2004, 07:07 PM

In the Californa Mid-Limit games I play in, weak gutshots ALWAYS call 1 SB for a 12 SB pot. The problem with betting is not merely having it check raised, but having multiple opponents just waiting to pounce on your bet. So if the game was typically aggressive, on a QJ flop, it seems fairly likely to me that it would be 3-bets back to you unless you for some reason can pick up on tells from multiple players that they have lost interest in the hand . And now this hand really becomes interesting... do you have the discipline to muck? As a side note, I think relying on these types of tells is dangerous because often when you pick up on them one or more of your more astute opponents also does and therefore you risk being C/R by a hand that might not have wanted to previously.

Noo Yawk · #10 11-22-2004, 07:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If(B), you have a bunch of guys that are going to call you no matter what, then you may want to consider checking now.

I think the types of players that like to check/call on this flop also like to check to the flop bettor on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats fine. The ideal situation is you clear the field of hands that hurt your outs, and keep in hands that you have beat, or can cleanly draw to beat. The turn will determine whether or not you take a freebie or bet for value.