Basic 15/30 Party Hand, but something feels wrong about it

ZeeJustin · #1 10-25-2004, 05:29 PM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button raises, Hero calls, BB calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 folds, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (9.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB
Main Pot: 9.50 BB, between Button and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (9.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qh Ah (one pair, tens).
Button has Qs Kh (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.50 BB. 

Maybe I feel uneasy about this because I wasn't ready to call a riverbet. Thoughts?

fnord_too · #2 10-25-2004, 05:53 PM

Pre-flop: I can see raising or calling, but I probably raise. (I think when I first moved from short to full handed, I have was overcompensating pre flop and not raising enough, now I may be overcompensating in the other direction, but I would be inclinded to raise here and try to push out those weak limps).

Flop: I think I like calling the raise, but again, I'm torn. I like trapping MP2 for an extra bet with such a huge draw. I don't know if I would lead or check raise the turn with this line, but I could see myself doing either if I called the flop.

Turn: I would probably lead here, but that is also a close decision.

River: I think you have to call the river if you check. His turn check screams weakness, but if would call with something like 88 checking is probably better. (I'm really having a hard time putting him on a hand here, I made the mistake of looking at the results first so I can't say that is the conclusion I would reach, but it makes sense).

Every street seems to be a close decision. What do you do if he just calls your flop 3-bet?

1800GAMBLER · #3 10-25-2004, 06:08 PM

I wouldn't call a river bet. You have all the flush draw combinations taken, the hand he had is the only had you bet in a wide range of hands, i've seen 88 etc make some regular sweet value bets when you double check it too.

Nate tha' Great · #4 10-25-2004, 07:36 PM

Justin,

Please post no limit hands in the no limit forum.

Ha-ha.

Anyway I think your biggest mistake is preflop, where you have an easy 3-bet. I see this as a situation where you're happy to have the limpers call two bets, and also happy to have them fold, but both are better than letting them see a flop for one bet.

I think check-folding the river would be awful. Your opponent does NOT appear to have a made hand. I'd probably bet and see if I couldn't get AK/AQ to fold - he seems scared enough of a check-raise on the turn that I think this line has some merit. If I didn't think there was any way that my opponent would fold those hands then I'd check-call. No way do I check-fold.

1800GAMBLER · #5 10-25-2004, 07:39 PM

What hands do you think wake up on the river to bet that capp the flop!?

Nate tha' Great · #6 10-25-2004, 07:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call a river bet. You have all the flush draw combinations taken, the hand he had is the only had you bet in a wide range of hands, i've seen 88 etc make some regular sweet value bets when you double check it too.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good player would raise two limpers on the Button with a lot of hands, including stuff like 98s and K9s.

1800GAMBLER · #7 10-25-2004, 07:50 PM

I must suck because i never raise them here.

Plus i never see anyone raising K9s or 89s here.

Plus that's only two combinations of hands out of a much larger range.

Plus these hands would have to now feel inspired to bluff after checking the turn.

Plus it's much more likely that 88 bets the river rather than K9s.

Nate tha' Great · #8 10-25-2004, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What hands do you think wake up on the river to bet that capp the flop!?

[/ QUOTE ]

He apparently capped the flop for a free card. Yes, some opponents will have a showdownable hand and check behind on the turn to avoid a check-raise bluff, but that is a much less common play among typical opponents than seeing a check-behind from a hand that believes it is drawing.

Some opponents will check behind on the river with a showdownable hand, but bluff with K-high or anything weaker (the presenece of the backdoor flush will somewhat increase his incentive to bluff). Others will value bet with a pretty wide range, but will give up on their bluffs. I'm not going to try and guess which is which and will make things easy on myself and call.

Nate tha' Great · #9 10-25-2004, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Plus that's only two combinations of hands out of a much larger range.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the only two combos. KQ/AQ/AK might all play it this way.

[ QUOTE ]
Plus these hands would have to now feel inspired to bluff after checking the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Justin seems pretty disinterested in the pot, now doesn't he?

[ QUOTE ]
Plus it's much more likely that 88 bets the river rather than K9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but it's also much more likely that 88 bets the turn.

1800GAMBLER · #10 10-25-2004, 07:59 PM

Yet you still believe 9% of players on party poker raises 89s/K9s preflop in this situation, cap the flop, check the turn and feel the need to bluff the river?

These are the only two hands you can hope for, it's not really a matter of 'range of hands' it's a matter of how many players will play this hand that way. So the question is, 'will 9% of the unknowns play 89s or K9s this way?' You honestly believe the answer is yes?

[ QUOTE ]
'It's not the only two combos. KQ/AQ/AK might all play it this way. '

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to remind you, that line is a moot point, you beat one, lose to one and tie with one.

[ QUOTE ]
Justin seems pretty disinterested in the pot, now doesn't he?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. OK take it this way. Say you do infact somehow, i have no idea how, but somehow come up with a range of hands that play this way up to the river that somehow has 89s and K9s taking up 9% of it, they would now have to bluff the river 100% of the time, meaning every single unknown on party poker would now have to bet the river with these hands for you to break even.