Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand

[poincaraux]

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Villains seems kinda loose passive. Basically, his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($59.28)
MP ($69.95)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($48.90)
SB ($54.40)
Hero ($48.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero... bets 12, villain pushes, hero calls.

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Having called the $4 on the turn, getting about 2.5:1 on my 4:1 draw, I needed to extract at least $12 on the end for the hand the turn call to be longterm profitable. Given that he was fairly loose/passsive, I expected that I would at least get called almost 100% of the time. Luckily for me, Villain showed 77, pushed against my bet and I won the max.

I had considered a weak lead, but against loose/passives, you all too often find that even with incredibly strong holdings, those bets only get called, and you lose out on a lot of value. I didn't like the open push because if he ever folds, I'm losing a ton of value, so I value bet for an almost full pot bet, although I think I probably could have overbet the pot and extracted more those times that he only calls me.

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I like this way of thinking about the bet, but I'm not sure I understand the odds. Can you please correct me if I'm wrong?

You have 8 outs and there are 46 cards left, so your draw is 38:8 = 4.75:1. If you're read is right on that he has a monster on the flop, his two cards aren't your outs, so you could say there are 44 cards left and your draw is 36:8 = 4.5:1. OK, so where do you get the $12? If the 4.5:1 number is correct, is it just (4.5-2.5)*$4 = $12?

I suppose it's OK to be a little off on those odds anyway, though .. if your read is right, he'll always at least call on the river, and he'll raise sometimes, so you'll make more than $12 by betting $12.

Thanks,

-poincaraux