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#61
11-14-2005, 11:54 AM
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Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
Update: I had a lot of stuff to do and played an hour of poker this weekend total, all of it royal hold'em [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I'll play a lot of these this week. 
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#62
11-14-2005, 12:29 PM
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Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
Guys, bet is off. I lost a million playing blackjack this weekend on party and the account is gone, because I lost your money. So solly.
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#63
11-14-2005, 01:25 PM
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Sidebets so far
Just to make some semiofficial sidebet list....
I have $100 with ExitOnly (money will be sent at the end) $100 with NoahSD (he sent me $100 and I'll wire back double if I lose) $52 with dogsballs (he sent the money to me, dont ask why its 52) Two or three other people have shown interest in bets but have not yet sent me money, so they aren't real bets yet. Hurry up before adanthar busts and I can't collect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] And Mr. Strasser, if you lost the money that's OK, one of my mafia connections in NYC says he still has 3 grand of yours from a pot he bluffed you out of a while back... Everett
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#64
11-14-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
Good luck with that
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#65
11-14-2005, 02:09 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
[ QUOTE ]
And Mr. Strasser, if you lost the money that's OK, one of my mafia connections in NYC says he still has 3 grand of yours from a pot he bluffed you out of a while back... Everett [/ QUOTE ] LOL, I thought Strassa's read was dead on. That was no bluff.
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#66
11-14-2005, 02:15 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
$75 with AceOfSpaces has now been placed as well. He has sent me the 75. I'm sure none of you care but I want to document all this so my suckers-- I mean fellow gamblers feel safe.
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#67
11-14-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet.
Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet. In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P.
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#68
11-14-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
[ QUOTE ]
$75 with AceOfSpaces has now been placed as well. He has sent me the 75. I'm sure none of you care but I want to document all this so my suckers-- I mean fellow gamblers feel safe. [/ QUOTE ] It's AceOfSpades not spaces.... I want full credit for being the sucker :P
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#69
11-14-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
[ QUOTE ]
I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet. Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet. In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P. [/ QUOTE ] I'm curious how exactly did you calculate this? With all the loopbacks, I wouldn't know how to begin to calculate this ev. My version went "I've made one ministep 5 and the other times I've tilted after busting down to ministep 1, I don't think adanthar will tilt like I do, and probably is better than I am. Oh yeah, I also played a ministep 1 w/ $6 and made it to step two." It should be interesting, adanthar keep us updated.
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#70
11-14-2005, 04:19 PM
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Re: Sidebets so far
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet. Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet. In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P. [/ QUOTE ] I'm curious how exactly did you calculate this? With all the loopbacks, I wouldn't know how to begin to calculate this ev. My version went "I've made one ministep 5 and the other times I've tilted after busting down to ministep 1, I don't think adanthar will tilt like I do, and probably is better than I am. Oh yeah, I also played a ministep 1 w/ $6 and made it to step two." It should be interesting, adanthar keep us updated. [/ QUOTE ] You can do it with straight algebra but its not fun. It's more to just pick the finish distribution percentages and let the computer brute-force-simulate a whole bunch of em. I have a program that does some stuff that I'm currently converting to an applet to put on the web. Will post the link once I find time to go through with it. Noah, I'm curious exactly what you did though. Shoot me a PM. Everett
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