a math question

jullep · #1 10-12-2005, 10:01 AM

In a situation where you more or less know oppenent has trips and you have nutstraight on flop, do you want ai on flop or a certain % on flop and push blank river?
k simple enough, I giva an example to clarify.

Stacks are rather deep, bb 120$,utg 90$ Hero in mp 110$
6-handed, 0.2-0.4.

Utg limp, hero limps 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], bb bets 1$, we both call.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

BB check, utg raise 3.6$, hero rr for 10.8$, bb fold, utg rr for 14.4$, hero push, in effect about 65$ more.
I´m just lazy and dont want to do the counting. Please share figures for turn play and thoughts of opponents play with bottom set etc.

#2 10-12-2005, 10:06 AM

If you're pretty sure nothing is going to scare him away from the pot, there's no reason not to find out if you're going to take it down before putting your money in.

jullep · #3 10-12-2005, 10:20 AM

Yes agreed, but is there a % of stack in on flop which makes both fold and call a more -ev decision on a blank turn then ai on the flop for him?
Ofocurse one has to consider the three different cases of set. I think he folds to a push here with bottom set on flop, not sure about middle and pretty sure he calls with top set. On turn, I dont know..

jzpiano14 · #4 10-12-2005, 10:33 AM

at .2/.4 he will push with bottom pair. You might have run into another straight, but more likely is a set

Guin · #5 10-12-2005, 10:46 AM

Had this situation last night with this exact hand and flop... luckily I had the hand. The raiser led out at us with a CB which was followed by a push by the other player with TP. I called the small push putting the raiser on an overpair which often get overplayed even more than bottom sets at this level.

I think if you are against an aggro player you can let them bet at you and don't be scared to reraise if they bet a small amount. In my case I was against AA and TJ but I think that bottom set would play similar to AA at this level.

Guin... who is working hard to not overplay overpairs! *plugging leaks all over the place*