Flopping a flush

[mdlm]

I limp in from SB in no-limit hold 'em with 5h4h. Four see the flop. 4K in the pot. I have 16K chips and key opponent has 14K chips.

Flop is Jh7h2h. I go all-in and get called by AhJs. 3h hits the river and I lose.

I believe that my all-in was an error. I think that only two hands will call my all-in: A set or a hand like AhJs (a pair with a better heart). I will ignore the possibility of someone calling with a better flush or with two pair.

Against AhJs I am a 70%-30% favorite. Against JdJc I am a 66%-33% favorite.

Instead of going all-in, I think I should've made a pot-sized bet. If I get called and the turn is a blank (doesn't pair and isn't a heart) I go all-in. I think a set or a AhJs will fold. If the turn pairs or is a heart then I check-fold.

Since there is a about a 20% chance that the turn will pair or be a heart, I will win 8K about 80% of the time and lose 4K (my pot-sized bet on the flop) about 20% of the time. This seems better to me then my all-in bet.

Am I right or are odds of 65%-70% the best I can possibly hope for?

[Bozeman]

vs. AhJs EV=10.96 if you and he have 16K and 14K left at the flop.

vs. jcjs, EV=10.4.

Your play gives EV=5.6 given your assumptions (including you will fold 20% of the time on the turn).

However, there are 17 cards that are hearts or pair the board. If your o has Ah and a blank, then 16 cards worry you (16/45=35.6%) while 7 make his hand (7/45=15.6%), and if he has jc js, 7 cards make his hand, and 8 more cards worry you (33.3% total). Because there are many cards that scare you that do not hurt you, it seems that you lose too much EV by preparing to fold the turn unless your o's will always check a losing hand on the turn, or will call with a beat hand.

So, if you are not afraid of a higher made flush, I think the better play is all-in. (though the pot raise does reduce the variance, so for extremely unusual bubble situations it may be preferred)

Still, I haven't considered how the possibility of facing a bigger made flush affects this,

Craig

[ohkanada]

I doubt I raise all-in. I make a pot sized bet and go all-in on the turn unless another heart shows up. If the board pairs I probably go all-in unless I have a strong read of a set.

I thinking raising all-in like you did looks suspicious so getting called by something other than a made flush or set is possible.

Ken Poklitar

[Hotchile]

This seems like the same conundrum of facing a raise with QQ. Should you go all-in or call to see the flop. I have started to call and see the flop in many situations. If there is no A or K on the flop, I may take an opponent all-in at that point as there is less chance of being called by AK with only 2 to come.

Ken, what is your opinion on this. I have so often taken AK all-in with QQ only to have him turn and A or K. I was always left thinking that if I would have made my all-in on the flop, that my opponent would be more inclined to fold. Plus, I would be able to escape if the flop did bring an A or K. I know it's not correct for every situation, but it seems to be the better play many times than all-in pre-flop.

Larry

[ohkanada]

With QQ facing 1 raise I would normally re-raise pre-flop. I would like to get more chips in the pot when I am likely the favorite. Now if it is an opponent who only raises with AA/KK/AK then I wouldn't re-raise.

Ken Poklitar