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#21
11-19-2005, 09:57 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
This is very interesting, but I have one other question. Let's say you lose 100 chips 9 times, but another time you win 1,000 (not saying with the specific situation of a pp, but just a hypatehtical). By PT it would apprear that the net ammount of chips won/lost is zero. But in relation to SNGs, which is more profitable to us? Which will get us ITM more, and which will help us win more? I'm not actually sure myself, but ICM should be able to tell us. But I'm pretty sure the odds are not exactly the same. Instinctively, that's why I'd call with p pairs even if overall they are break even. Because it feels like the time I double up I gain more than the many times I lose 30-50 chips out of my thousand. But I don't have any data to back this up. Can anyone help me out here?
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#22
11-19-2005, 10:17 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
I played around with this: http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html
And it seems like playing low PP's to hit sets is really close to 0 $EV as well as 0 EV. I neglected that you gain a lot of ICM value when you stack someone in a tournument due to eliminating him from the tournument. Assuming one guy takes your 15-30 chips, or you have 1600, and everyone else has 800 in the last case: Chips $EV 785 0.0983 770 0.0966 1600 0.1844
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#23
11-19-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
[ QUOTE ]
This is very interesting, but I have one other question. Let's say you lose 100 chips 9 times, but another time you win 1,000 (not saying with the specific situation of a pp, but just a hypatehtical). By PT it would apprear that the net ammount of chips won/lost is zero. But in relation to SNGs, which is more profitable to us? Which will get us ITM more, and which will help us win more? I'm not actually sure myself, but ICM should be able to tell us. But I'm pretty sure the odds are not exactly the same. Instinctively, that's why I'd call with p pairs even if overall they are break even. Because it feels like the time I double up I gain more than the many times I lose 30-50 chips out of my thousand. But I don't have any data to back this up. Can anyone help me out here? [/ QUOTE ] Well, whether or not having a big stack helps you incrementally more than losing chips hurts you has been up for debate for quite a while (see Gig's block threads). But ICM isn't the place to go to support that argument. According to ICM in a percentage-payout tournament, doubling your stack does not double your EV, and losing half of your stack does not cut your EV in half. So losing chips hurts worse than gaining chips helps. That is the underlying reason why your chips are "worth more" the shorter your stack is. Irieguy
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#24
11-19-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
Thanks. The other factor that ICM doesn't account for is that GOOD players can use a big stack to gain more chips, which could shift the balance towards good players taking this =EV situation and in actuality making a little money off of it. But that's probably a small factor.
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#25
11-19-2005, 10:37 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. The other factor that ICM doesn't account for is that GOOD players can use a big stack to gain more chips, which could shift the balance towards good players taking this =EV situation and in actuality making a little money off of it. But that's probably a small factor. [/ QUOTE ] This is talked about a lot. I believe I handle my big stack pretty well and will pwn under the right circumstance. I KNOW damn well, I handle my small stack A LOT better than the average tilty steamed up little stack.
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#26
11-19-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
If anyone that played poker ever knew PostgreSQL, we could query PT to find out what your true $EV seems to be when you double up early.
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#27
11-19-2005, 10:52 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
[ QUOTE ]
If anyone that played poker ever knew PostgreSQL, we could query PT to find out what your true $EV seems to be when you double up early. [/ QUOTE ] I'm using mysql with pokeroffice and was just in there doing queries trying to figure out how I'm doing with PPs in early levels. I'm doing fine, but not nearly enough data to say much as I haven't been using Poffice very long. Trying to figure $EV imperically, I think, would take an insane amount of data, but perhaps a question as simple as $EV if you double in the first orbit could be reasonably addressed by someone with a fairly large database. If someone with more data wants to take a look at this, I'd be happy to help with the database queries.
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#28
11-19-2005, 10:57 PM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
Why the change to PokerOffice? I paid for it a long time ago, so I could switch back if you have a good reason. MySQL is almost enough for me.
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#29
11-20-2005, 12:11 AM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
Something to think about: if we are not calling with low pairs then shouldn't we also fold pairs as big as 9,9, since, just like lower pairs, we can't play them after the flop unless we hit a set?
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#30
11-20-2005, 12:17 AM
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Re: Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?
I've never really used PT. I looked at the demo a long time ago and didn't like it that much, although that was probably more because I didn't know what I was looking at rather than PT's fault.
I've had POffice for about a month and like it so far. It doesn't have a replayer, but they say they are working on it.
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