ATs EP

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ...

Villian seemed solid. If semi-bluff checkraising the turn worth it here? I have 8+ outs against his likely hands with perhaps as many as 11. If Villian was coldcalling with a pair less than J I figure he has to let go a good % of the time. Is anyone ever folding AJ or KJ here? TT and 99 probably would have 3-bet but since they have a gutshot I don't think they would fold.

Mostly I'm wondering if I'm missing any hands from his range, (Aq, KQ, AJ, KJ, JT, TT-55) and if anyone thinks Villian will fold a J to a turn cr. Thanks,

Krishan

[flawless_victory]

i would just call most of the time.
most likely hand is KQ and hell never ever fold even a J cause this is party and ppl dont fold a J.

only reason you CR is if you have a specific reason to believe he may be FOS... you dont want to call down w/ AThigh so this would be the spot to go ahead and make a play.

[YoureToast]

How do you figure you have 8+ outs and maybe 11?

Fold 98% of the time against a typical opponent.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure you have 8+ outs and maybe 11?

Fold 98% of the time against a typical opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]
mostly cause he can the board and you apparently cant.
sry.

[etizzle]

i just call here. he probably will not fold a q or a j.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure you have 8+ outs and maybe 11?

Fold 98% of the time against a typical opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm double gutted with an overcard.

Krishan

[andyfox]

I don't know how we'd know if villain would fold a jack, or anything, here. The board is double suited, so he might figure your check-raise for a flush draw, and he might now have one; that would lessen his chances, whatever they are, of folding. Heck, he might have T-9s for all we know. I'd be surprised if you have 11 outs, but with $175 in the pot, I'd call. K-Ts in hearts or spades is another possible holding for him, but it's more likely he has a piece of the flop/turn rather than a drawing hand, since he fired again on the turn.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
it's more likely he has a piece of the flop/turn rather than a drawing hand, since he fired again on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe it's my shorthand background but an underlying assumption is that some people will actually try for a free card on this board instead of firing again on the turn? this is mostly unheard of at 6-max. Thanks for clarifying.

I agree I have very little fold equity. This isn't a great board to play back at with an underpair. And most of the time I'm going to be up against a Q or J which will never fold. I'm just trying to adjust to mid-limit full ring and am double checking my fold equity here.

Krishan

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure you have 8+ outs and maybe 11?

Fold 98% of the time against a typical opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm double gutted with an overcard.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

misread..sorry.