A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea

[Jake (The Snake)]

Well, maybe I'm playing too much 6max lately but my estimate is a lot higher than everyone elses. My first thought was about 56% and I would be pretty shocked if it was less than 50%.

Edit: meh, thought about it some more and I would revise my estimate to like 52%, I'll fool around with PS a little later.

[Jake (The Snake)]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.5744 % 57.32% 00.26% { TdTh }
Hand 2: 42.4256 % 42.17% 00.26% { JJ-99, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 55, 4c4d, 4d4h, 4d4s, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdJd, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Q7s+, Q5s, J9s+, T9s, AcJd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AsJd, AcTd, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AsTd, Ac9d, Ad9c, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9d, As9d, Ac8d, Ad8c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, As8d, Ad7c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ac6d, Ad6c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ah6d, As6d, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad2c, Ad2h, Ad2s, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, Kc9d, Kd9c, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9d, Ks9d, Kd8c, Kd8h, Kd8s, Kd7c, Kd7h, Kd7s, QJo, QcTd, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTd, QsTd, Q9o, Qc8d, Qd8c, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qh8d, Qs8d, Qc7d, Qd7c, Qd7h, Qd7s, Qh7d, Qs7d, JTo, Jc9d, Jd9c, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9d, Js9d, Jc8d, Jd8c, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jh8d, Js8d, Tc9d, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9d, Ts9d, Tc8d, Td8c, Td8h, Td8s, Th8d, Ts8d, 9c8d, 9d8c, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9h8d, 9s8d, 9c7d, 9d7c, 9d7h, 9d7s, 9h7d, 9s7d, 9c6d, 9d6c, 9d6h, 9d6s, 9h6d, 9s6d, 8c7d, 8d7c, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7d, 8s7d, 7c6d, 7d6c, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6d, 7s6d }



Think I included enough hands? Now the 57% should be pushed down a little bit because it's a little more likely he'd c/r the flop with hands that have better than 43% equity, but not that much since even the hands that are below that are not far below that. I think a reasonable equity guess is anywhere between 50-55% as Will suggested.


Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%

If you could explain why, that would be even better. I'll post the answers a little later with some explanations. I think they are pretty interesting.

[W. Deranged]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake. Thanks dude. This is a good analysis.

I originally projected the equity number way too low (I think my original intuition was 35% or something).

As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).

My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

What was interesting for me was that the turn was a blank and the river was a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A. Villain bet out and I determined that there was very little way I was ahead and folded.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).


[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow forgot about that. 45-50 sounds about right then. I'd still expect 50-55 online though.

[ QUOTE ]
My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small .


[/ QUOTE ]

That likely would have been my line too, but I'm not 100% sure any more. I think there are a few cards besides T's which I might raise now. Want to take a crack at my little matching quiz? I think it could embarass most people, including myself. Hopefully I didn't mess it up.

[ QUOTE ]
I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake

[/ QUOTE ]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you and your excellent posts... and so the Small Stakes love-fest continues.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%



[/ QUOTE ]

Answers below are in white:

<font color="white">
1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 75%
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 59%
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 52%
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 59%
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 44%


The 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]: The important thing to realize here is that most turns will NOT drastically effect Hero's equity. If the turn is a non-diamond blank, we are still ahead of nines, still ahead of flush draws, and still behind queens. If the turn is a diamond blank, we pull ahead of queens, but fall behind the flush draws. In either case, we still find ourselves at about 50/50. Either/or [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is not quite as blankish since it completes straight and two pair draws that pull our opponents ahead. It also gives us a gutshot. Overall our equity is lowered a bit, but not much.

Finally, the aces. The A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a bad card for Hero because many of the AdX hands just pulled ahead and the queens are still ahead. 9Xd is pretty much all we are still ahead of.

It might seem like the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would be a bad card, but in fact it is THE VERY BEST NON-TEN CARD that could fall. Why? Because it eliminates so many of villain's flush draws (making it more likely he has a queen) while giving Hero a flush. This, I think, is a VERY important idea (adjusting our opponent's range)... and I would raise the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. </font>

[W. Deranged]

Jake,

I'll give it a shot.

1. A

The A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would seem to definitely be the best of those four cards. We have sucked out on any better pair hand. Because it's the A, it means villain can't have it and we are only worry about two possible better flushes instead of three.

2. C (or E)

A small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is good for us but not as good as a big [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], since it's more likely that villain has a bigger draw he just hit.

3. E (or C)

This is a decent card for us because it gives us extra outs. JT isn't that likely for villain anyway, and the value of the extra outs are more valuable to us than that card is to villain on average.

4. D

A total blank isn't that good for us. While it is unlikely to make villains hand better, it means our hand doesn't improve. We basically stay at about where we were at against villain roughly, which was in the mid-50s.

5. B

This seems to be very clearly the worst card we could hit. Any A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw has just improved to beat us, and we're drawing near dead against them now. Our hand doesn't improve against any of the hands we're drawing against, while several of villain's hands do improve against ours.

Am I right? I promise I did this without looking...

[W. Deranged]

Aww [censored].