Give him credit for an overpair?

[Matador225]

Hand from earlier today in the Party for Free $100,000

Villain seemed to be pretty solid and had only shown down strong hands since I had been at the table. Also his standard raise was what he raised to in this hand.

#Game No : 3224490806
***** Hand History for Game 3224490806 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:18397682 Level:5 Blinds (50/100) - Sunday, December 18, 20:18:23 EDT 2005
Table Party for Free $100,000(527145) Table #67 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: NJKowboy22 ( $2540 )
Seat 3: mangy71 ( $1905 )
Seat 4: YDNEW ( $945 )
Seat 6: Mr_Insidious ( $2860 )
Seat 7: Normandy44 ( $4480 )
Seat 9: stanforth ( $265 )
Seat 10: snowman052 ( $4350 )
Seat 8: Runningtowin ( $6592 )
Seat 5: phillydogg19 ( $1870 )
Seat 1: LooseOos ( $3432 )
Trny:18397682 Level:5
Blinds (50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NJKowboy22 [ 9s 9d ]
mangy71 folds.
YDNEW folds.
phillydogg19 folds.
Mr_Insidious raises [225].
Normandy44: Why?
Normandy44 folds.
Runningtowin folds.
stanforth folds.
snowman052 folds.
LooseOos calls [175].
NJKowboy22 calls [125].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 8h, 3h ]
LooseOos checks.
NJKowboy22 bets [400].
Mr_Insidious is all-In [2635]
LooseOos folds.

I don't generally make this fold with no reads but villain's line left me thinking I was behind. What is everyone's default play here given this line against a fairly tight and solid player?

Thanks a lot,
Jack

[Matador225]

Bump. Line looks pretty consistent with an overpair but I certainly think he could be unwilling to let AK or AQ go. What's my play?

Standard would be to call I think, but given your read it is debatable. A raise pre-flop to 550 would have clarified this.

[Matador225]

I considered reraising preflop but if he pushes I think I have to fold. Calling allows me to see the flop and possibly spike a set, but I agree that it also gives me little idea what he is holding. Anyone else?

If your going to bet and call a push, why not just c/r all in? Not sure, your beating almost nothing on that flop, although that almost min-raise preflop is pretty fishy. I would drop it, you kind of made it tough on yourself by betting the flop though.

[Matador225]

I didn't want to attempt a check raise because I had no idea if my hand was best. My raise was mostly to gather information and I had already concluded that I was getting away if I got reraised. Anybody think this is too weak?

[ QUOTE ]
If your going to bet and call a push, why not just c/r all in? Not sure, your beating almost nothing on that flop, although that almost min-raise preflop is pretty fishy. I would drop it, you kind of made it tough on yourself by betting the flop though.

[/ QUOTE ]
just looking at the betting and the stacks quickly ,it think the pot before the flop is up around 600 ,and hero bets 400 on the flop.i would hardly call that a min raise.
i like that cuz hero as an over pair and is giving the villian a chance to get away from just over cards.
if hero just checks ,villian is gonna bet no matter what,then you have no idea where you stand.if you check raise,you have to go all in and you still dont know if he has an over pair.
based on the read on villian he is a solid player,and solid players dont go all in with over cards unless they have a great confident read that they can move you of a hand like this.

[JustPlayingSmart]

[ QUOTE ]
A raise pre-flop to 550 would have clarified this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since no one has really commented on this statement yet, I would like to. I think a preflop reraise is terrible. If villain has an overpair, he almost certainly pushes. If he has AK he probably pushes also. Are we calling this push? Probably not. What if he just calls, which I also think is a possibility since the reraise is small, and the flop comes QTx or AJx. Now we're out of position with a vulnerable hand who could easily be behind, an inflated pot, and too many chips to just push (not like pushing would be that great anyway, since most better hands would call and most worse hands would fold).

This is a concept Sklansky talks about in TPFAP. By raising here, you are effectively turning 99 into 72 (although with this small a raise this is slightly incorrect, since villain will actually call with many hands he would fold to a healthy raise to around 850). Calling preflop is great. We're getting pretty good odds to flop a set and with implied odds the call is a no brainer.

As for the flop, betting out and getting raised is definitely a tough spot because a lot of players will interpret the flop donk as weakness and autoraise with whatever they have. Given that this is a freeroll (even if it cost points or whatever to enter), I would have difficulty letting go of an overpair with 25xBB stacks. I would love to know what this guy's standard raises were though. This is definitely a small raise. If I had seen him make this raise before, I would almost certainly just check/raise all in (or call his push if I bet out on the flop). If this was out of the ordinary for him, I would probably bet out and fold to a push. If I had no read, I would say "bah" and call cuz I don't like to lay down overpairs.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A raise pre-flop to 550 would have clarified this.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had seen him make this raise before, I would almost certainly just check/raise all in (or call his push if I bet out on the flop). If this was out of the ordinary for him, I would probably bet out and fold to a push. If I had no read, I would say "bah" and call cuz I don't like to lay down overpairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP stated that he played pretty solid and had only showndown good hands. go with your read. And i too hate a preflop raise,99 is just not that strong, horrible idea, if you think you have some FE, maybe a push. I fold in this situation.

[Matador225]

This was his standard raise btw.

Without reads I definitely go to the felt here, but this time I really felt like I was beat. Occasionally I'm up against overs but I don't think thats enough to call.

Thanks for the replies everyone,
Jack