TajProfessor: Optimal Betting Curve (is John Turmel a nut?)

[Zim]

Anyone want to try to explain this post to me?

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How do we get a copy of your fourth year engineering
project?

JCT: It's never been published.
21 Pages of print-out and math.
But you can figure out the optimal betting curve
by figuring out fair odds given 5% edge, 52.5%:47.5%

The equation is Bet=[q/(p-q)] where p=winner's chance
and q= loser's chance.

For 10% edge, it's 55:45 so Bet=[.45/(.55-.45)] = .45/.1 =
4.5 BETS Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.

For 20%, it's 60:40 so Bet=[.4/(.6-.4)] = .4/.2 = 2 BETS
Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.

For 50%, it's 75:25 so Bet=[.25/(.75-.25)] = .25/.5 = 1/2
BET Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.

For 100%, it's 100:0 so Bet=[0/1] = 0 BET
With no chance of losing, anything you can get out of him is
too much when, given no chance of winning, he should never
call.

It's counter intuitive to what most people think.
The smaller your edge, the more you must bet to protect.
The larger your edge, the less you must bet.
But you must never give opponent a positive call.
You'll rarely get an overlay when calling me except
in limit games where they're often available which is
why the Turmel2Step is necessary to automatically
highlight the winners and the losers for your choice.
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JCT: This is extraordinarily important in no-limit poker.
But to think that you have to bet 4.5 times the size of the
pot when you only have a 10% edge goes against most people
feeling more comfortable betting big with big edges. But big
edges don't need to big bets like small ones do. So you can
imagine what a maniac a player who understands that he has
to put it all in on small edges would seem to the others.

I can say for certain but it sounds like the kind of play
Doyle Brunson was famous for. Putting it in over and over
again on small edges. Now you know why it made him a winner
to have kept pushing out the draws. And if they finally
called, they were often getting bad odds. And when they
caught him, he still had his outs.

You have to bet big with small edges like you can bet small
with big ones. Very counter-intuitive.

http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/...tep/message/14

--
John C. "The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel, Author of the UNILETS
interest-free time-based currency United Nations C6 recommendation to
Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel / http://www.medpot.net 613.632.2334