KJo vs the blinds.

SamIAm · #1 04-13-2005, 01:18 AM

SB and BB are both LP-P. (That's a "fish" icon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) Note that it's 6-handed. We had just lost a bunch of players. I don't normally raise with KJo UTG, but these were 10-handed players who were suddenly playing 6-handed, so raising felt better.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: SamIAm is UTG with Kh, Js.
SamIAm raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Tc, Qc, Jd (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, SamIAm bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8h (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, SamIAm bets, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, SamIAm folds

On the flop, I had MP as well as the openended straight draw AS WELL as position. Easy bet.
On the turn, I lose to a 9 or a Q, but there's no club and it's still checked to me, so I bet. I think I have to call even if they raise me, just for the A draw.(?) A King would probably be nice, but puts a 4-straight out there.
Then my straight didn't come and the bottom card paired. When BB perked up, I folded since SB still had to act. Bad fold?
-Sam

SmileyEH · #2 04-13-2005, 02:17 AM

call river

-SmileyEH

Azhrarn · #3 04-13-2005, 02:19 AM

Well-played.

Pokey · #4 04-13-2005, 02:21 AM

I think you did it right.

Preflop raise is a bit frisky, but you justified it well, and as long as it doesn't become your standard play with KJo UTG, you're fine.

Flop is an EASY bet.

Turn is a pretty easy bet, since fishies tend to come to life when they hit their hands. How is it that they don't realize that betting once every 30 hands sends a signal to attentive players? Probably because they're so INattentive themselves that they don't realize other players pay attention.

River fold is standard. When the fish bet the scare cards, the sharks have to fold. You forgot one very important point: that last 8 wasn't just a pair card for the board, but also the third club. I don't know if BB has the flush or the trips, but either way your queens just died. Say goodbye and beat their brains out the next time they call you down to the river.

SamIAm · #5 04-13-2005, 09:21 AM

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call river
-SmileyEH

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Smiley, if we just wanted to tabulate opinions, we'd do only polls. Posts like this dilute the forum. I'm psyched you disagree with me, but try using WORDS.

What do you think the river-bettor had? A ten? A worse Jack? A pure bluff when the board paired? All these seem pretty unlikely to me. The fact that SB stayed around for some reason makes the fold even easier.
-Sam

brettbrettr · #6 04-13-2005, 11:22 AM

I think its a good fold. The pre-flop raise with KJo is super-duper-standard, nothing wrong with it at all. HU I might make a call here, but SB's presence changes things.

Stu Pidasso · #7 04-13-2005, 11:51 AM

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Smiley, if we just wanted to tabulate opinions, we'd do only polls. Posts like this dilute the forum. I'm psyched you disagree with me, but try using WORDS.

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"Call River" is an abreviated way of saying "I think your hand holds up more than 11.764705882352941176470588235294 precent of the time.

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What do you think the river-bettor had? A ten? A worse Jack? A pure bluff when the board paired? All these seem pretty unlikely to me.

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The river better is going to have each of those hands a certain precentage of the time. I'd guesstimate hes on a pure bluff 7-8% of the time. If that is the case, the river better doesn't have to bet those other holding all that often to swing this into a call. Perhaps you could tell us how often you would expect the river better to be betting each of these holdings.

Stu

Pokey · #8 04-13-2005, 02:11 PM

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What do you think the river-bettor had? A ten? A worse Jack? A pure bluff when the board paired? All these seem pretty unlikely to me.

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The river better is going to have each of those hands a certain precentage of the time. I'd guesstimate hes on a pure bluff 7-8% of the time. If that is the case, the river better doesn't have to bet those other holding all that often to swing this into a call. Perhaps you could tell us how often you would expect the river better to be betting each of these holdings.

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The play is 1 BB to you with 8.5 BBs in the pot. A FISH just came to life and bet into the guy who has raised every single chance he got all hand long. From what I've seen at the 2/4 tables, fish don't bluff the river in this situation. Heck, fish don't BLUFF. If he's got a bit of aggro in him, maybe he bluffs the flop or turn. MAYBE. But this isn't a "checked around twice" river, here. There's a steady bettor. He's sitting right behind the fish. The fish is betting into demonstrated power. Fish aren't smart enough to do this on a steal.

He's got something, and his something beats your something.

chesspain · #9 04-13-2005, 02:26 PM

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I don't know if BB has the flush or the trips, but either way your queens just died.

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Actually, Hero only had jacks for MP, meaning that the fish could also have had a Q with a crappy kicker that he realizes just got upgraded to a J kicker.

Pokey · #10 04-13-2005, 02:50 PM

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I don't know if BB has the flush or the trips, but either way your queens just died.

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Actually, Hero only had jacks for MP, meaning that the fish could also have had a Q with a crappy kicker that he realizes just got upgraded to a J kicker.

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Jacks. Queens. Bleh. I've got to stop posting after the peyote kicks in.

You're right -- I knew he had 2nd pair, but I kept getting confused in my head, and I hate paging back and forth and scrolling up and down to make my response posts.

Chalk the specifics up to laziness on my part, but I think the analysis still holds up.