Sox +115?

[DougOzzzz]

I almost never bet on my beloved Red Sox, but this line seems way off.

I mean, Aaron frickin Small? Yeah, his ERA and W-L record LOOKS good, but cmon. The guy is a journeyman who belongs in AAA. He's gotten exceptionally lucky.

On the other hand, David Wells has been the best starter on the Sox lately, and possibly the whole season. He's no ace, but a guy with 95 K's and only 14(!) BB's in 155 IP has got to be pretty good. In contrast, Small has 15 BB's in less than 1/3rd the innings, and his K rate (21 Ks, about 4.2 K/9) is much lower than Wells'. There is no question in my mind that this is a serious pitching mismatch.

With offenses roughly equal (maybe the SLIGHTEST of edges for NY because of Giambi's resurgence), the only thing the Yanks have going for them is HFA. That's worth about 20 cents. So, the line is basically saying the David Wells is worth 5 cents over Aaron Small.

Aaron, bleepin, Boone errr Small.

P.S. This is why ERA doesn't mean much over a small sample size (45 innings, say). I mean, AARON SMALL? Bah...

More stats:
xFIP: David Wells - 3.70
Aaron Small - 5.17

xFIP is a defense independant ERA based on K rate, BB rate, and GB/FB ratio. It has a significantly stronger correlation with future ERA than ERA itself.