Bad Cards Preferable?

[AaronBrown]

I agree, but suggest a slight modification. There's no sharp distinction between normal and necessary pots. As your stack shrinks (or the blinds rise) you need to adjust your play.

Most Poker theory is based on long-run averages. That's fine if you're trying to maximize your lifetime Poker income. But in a tournament you may be down to 1 or 10 or 20 hands. Any time you get under 20, the short-term becomes significant.

Say, for example, you play 20% of your hands to maximize your long-term expected value. Out of 20 hands, 1% of the time you will get no playable cards, 6% of the time you will get only one hand, 15% of the time you will get only two. If you don’t hit flops, or if someone else has stronger cards, you’ll be out of the tournament without a real chance to play. At this point it can make sense to play a marginal hand, or play an unexpected hand in a large pot, or bluff.

If you don’t adjust when you can afford to fold 20 hands in a row, you’ll have to make a larger adjustment when you can only afford to fold 10. The other players will be more suspicious, so it’s less likely to work. Moreover, with some extra money, you can do something more than just going all-in at the start. That gives you some playing flexibility.