Table Reamed Me Out For This Hand

[2+2 wannabe]

after reading GregJ's posts, I'm not so sure this is an automatic re-raise

I know people will check-raise with a lot of holdings in this spot - I would be surprised if he did have the set (as most people would check-raise the turn) - hell people check-raise A-high to make a move.

I have two overcards, nut flush draw, backdoor straight draw - at the time I liked my equity with 2 others (even heads-up). In hindsight, I should be calling this check-raise, and playing it like I have AK/AQ/KQ. I'll be certain to get a raise in with a flush card (as SB won't expect me having the flush) - and maybe even getting 3-bet.

[Catt]

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Fear of a board pair that hasn't yet come is irrational to the extreme. Worry about it if it happens.


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*sigh*
Why are some of you guys so insistent on this point? How many hands in SB checkraising with?

Pokerstove:
1) If SB has and set and CO has a random hand:
Pot equity is ~25%, so betting is -EV.
2) If SB has 2 pair and CO has a random hand:
Pot equity is ~33.4%, so is break even.
3) If SB has TPTK and CO has a randome hand:
Pot Equity is ~44%, so betting is +EV.

I think that the first two outcomes are more likely given the checkraise, with option one being the most likely.

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So, if CO calls I have an equity edge or an "equity neutral" situation unless he has a set, and if CO folds I have the button on the turn with a free card possibility unless I am capped? And if SB has a flush draw he is drawing to 6-outs and likely to spew if a club falls? And if he has a hand like JT (TP) or 89 (OESD) I'm in great shape? And the slightly LAG (but not solid) SB is the one check-raising my flop bet? I don't think you can make a terribly convincing argument that calling here is wrong without better reads, but I also don't think you can make a terribly convincing argument that 3-betting is wrong without better reads. I might be more willing to call if I thought the risk of CO folding was pretty high, but I am probably three-betting if CO is the weak-tight kind to peel the flop and fold the turn UI. I don't know why you're convinced that he has a hand that makes our pair outs worthless.

[Greg J]

Okay, here is what it boils down to:
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I don't know why you're convinced that he has a hand that makes our pair outs worthless.

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I don't. There is a decent chance those outs are good. I have tried (so far unsuccessfully) to argue that we cannot assume they are.

I have explained the reasoning behind this conclusion in my other posts in this thread, but here is what it boils down to:
[b]
By raising this flop Hero puts himself in a position to win the least when he has an equity edge (villian has a marginal hand and just calls), and lose the most when he does not (villian has a very good hand and caps).

[Catt]

Not all all. Even if Hero is capped, he has a solid draw; when Villain has a marginal hand, Hero can choose to take the free card on the turn if he so chooses in many cases. There's no way that 3-betting this hand on the flop is anywhere close to as inferior a play as calling as you seem to think it is. This is reasonably close, and reads could swing it either way, but I think you're nuts if you're convinced this is a clear call. OP's comment that he "reamed out for this hand" certainly implies that there was a suck-out against a strong hand at play here, but we have no idea that this is the case when the hand is played.

[Greg J]

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Even if Hero is capped, he has a solid draw...

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Of course, but the argument is not whether we are getting odds to draw when we are behind to a monster, it's 1) a pot equity argument about when out A,Q and board pairing clubs outs are clean, and 2) an implied odds argument about what villian will do based on what he has. When the outs are not clean, we make ourselves pay more by 3 betting. When they are, and we get bet into on a later street, we get a chance to raise when we hit.

Assuming a range of hands: When we call we increase our implied odds. When we 3 bet we increase our reverse implied odds.

[Catt]

Greg - this is one aspect of the argument. There are others. The possibility of taking a free card if we want it; the possibility of betting the turn HU and taking it down UI; the possibility that SB is also on a draw and won't bet the turn, even if we hit; the possibility that he calls the 3-bet and leads the turn anyway. You can't immediately think that a board pairing club out (of which there are only 3 on the turn and at most 6 on the river) sinks our chance to make the best hand.

There are so many variables to this that the idea that this has a clear-cut, straightforward answer is just wrong.

[Greg J]

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The possibility of taking a free card if we want it...

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If CO is in a forgiving mood.

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You can't immediately think that a board pairing club out (of which there are only 3 on the turn and at most 6 on the river) sinks our chance to make the best hand.

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I never said that. I am saying 1) that we should not ignore the possibility, and 2) the fact that the flop was CR'd makes that more likely.

FWIW -- I think that 3 betting this flop is not a huge error. But it is, in isolation, a tactical error. To make it correct, meta game stuff comes into play.

[Catt]

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The possibility of taking a free card if we want it...

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If CO is in a forgiving mood.

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You can't immediately think that a board pairing club out (of which there are only 3 on the turn and at most 6 on the river) sinks our chance to make the best hand.

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I never said that. I am saying 1) that we should not ignore the possibility, and 2) the fact that the flop was CR'd makes that more likely.

FWIW -- I think that 3 betting this flop is not a huge error. But it is, in isolation, a tactical error. To make it correct, meta game stuff comes into play.

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Well, I am going to disagree; but I think we've both made all the arguments we're going to make without any headway.

I'll concede that, depending on the players, it may be a tactical mistake. But it may be a tactical mistake to call the raise. Frankly, your insistence that it is a mistake to because our equity situation on the flop is murky baffles me.

[MrWookie47]

I'll chime in here for a bit, too. I ran some pokerstove numbers for starters. I gave SB a somewhat liberal range: ATo/s, KTs, 98s, T7s, or any set. There might be some other club draws in his range, but that's a start. CO got a random hand. The stove cooked up about 40% equity for us, about 51% for SB, and just under 9% to CO. If we 3bet and fold CO, SB will inherit just about all of his equity, making our 3bet will be taking the worst of it by a significant margin. If he calls, the raise may still be +EV, but I think that my range underestimates the probability of SB having a set here. That c/r in a protected pot is a strong move, indicative of a good hand. A draw might be a little optimistic here, and a player with a VPIP of 25 calling some of those hands in the SB should be discounted somewhat, too.

Now, there is the free card argument, but look at this. If we hit on the turn, the SB betting is a very good thing, especially if CO calls. CO is more likely to call on the turn than on the river after we take a free card, SB bets and allows us to raise after hitting (or being smart and checking). Our implied odds of hitting are much better if we have SB as the aggressor rather than being the aggressor ourselves. This lets us raise (rather than merely bet) when our edge is huge, instead of raising now when our edge is small (or negative, if CO folds).

Put me in the camp for calling rather than 3betting. I don't want to fold CO, and I like our implied odds a lot better if SB is the aggressor (and CO is still around to pay us off).

[TomBrooks]

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The table is ripping you because you're not playing the weak-tight game. No raise without two pair or better! Call down on draws! Don't rock the boat!!

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Reply to them in the chat box with something like...

Don't mess with the best, you'll die like the rest!

or

I am the King of This Table. Bow down before me and I may bestow some mercy on you.