Question from a Rookie on MTT

[Buckyinsc]

I played in a recent $3 NL tournament on Poker Stars, and was amazed at the amount of all in plays, especially preflop. I've been lurking on this board for about a few months, and reading some posts, and reading some books and understand the pot odds concepts, but here's the part where it all falls apart for me.

Let's say I'm Heads up for a pot in a NL MTT and there are still 500 players left. My hand is a 4-1 underdog and I'm getting 6-1 pot odds. If I have to push to get this, even though the payoff makes this a correct odds play, I still have an 80% chance of busting out of the tournament. And if I were to do this twice, it becomes a 96% chance to to be busted.

Second scenario, let's say I'm a 2-1 favorite, and I have to push to get those odds HeadsUp. If I do this 4 times, I only have a 20% chance to make it through all four.

I just don't see how constantly pushing all my chips into the middle will get me to the final table. It seems to me that I want to have the bigger stack in these situations so that I'm putting my opponent all in, and I have an edge on the pot odds. When I'm the dog, I'd need to be able to take the hit and still have a viable stack remaining. When I'm the favorite I can have a much higher % of my stack in the middle.

Help me out. How does the way I play vs. the pot odds change when I'm forced to go all in to get the odds? If I'm getting 20-1 and drawing to a gut-shot I like the pot odds but not the odds of busting out? How often will I have to put myself all-in on ave to make it to the final table?

Thanks in advance for any and all help.

[HeroInBlack]

You are correct that the payout structure and survival have to be taken into account. That being said, my theory on pot odds is that if you're getting paid 6-1 on a 4-1 shot, you generally take it because you're going to be in that situation 3 more times, and 1.5 times, you're going to sextuple (did I just make that up?) up.

There's going to be another $3 tournament the next night, so your opportunites to make this move are endless, and you will come out ahead if you do it repeatedly.

Secondly, you mention the scenario of having to do it twice. Well, if you sextuple up the first time, it is very, very unlikely that you'll be so short stacked again any time soon that you are presented with another sextuple opportunity in the same tournament.

In summary, if it's still a ways to the money, I make all my decisions based on pot odds. The times you hit, you'll have a big stack and you can force others to make these decisions for all their chips rather than you having to do it.

[GtrHtr]

I play the lower limits also and consider the rush to go all in entertainment. Unless you get dealt AA with someone going all in ahead of you preflop, just sit back and enjoy the madness for the first hour or two.

[One Armed Dwarf]

I'm not sure how this particular 4-1/6-1 situation would come up, but I think about it this way.

Let's say that there are 50 other people in the tournament as good or better than you that also get the same 4-1/6-1 opportunity as you. Let's also say that these people are willing to push it. Assuming that this is an all-in play, 10 of these players will emerge with 7x as much money as you have. What are your chances of beating all of them now? I won't do the math, but it is worse than before.

As a further illustration. If we assume you can do this twice per tournament, 2 of the players will emerge with somewhere around 50x as many chips as you do.

By passing up this play, you put yourself at an insurmountable chip disadvantage.

Also note that the payout structures of tournaments pays disproportionately to the top finishers. Passing up pot odds destroys your chance to be among them.

[Buckyinsc]

Thanks for the replys. Much appreciated.

[MrLob]

Don't fall into the push mentality. It won't work too well when you move up to higher buy in tournies. Play and practice your game. You'll have plenty of good opportunities to pick off the pushers once you've had a chance to observe them for a while. In these $3 events the idea of most is get a big stack early or forget about it, so it's not a gret representation of normal tournament action.