What does a loose but weak preflop capper have?

AngelicPenguin · #1 07-31-2005, 01:04 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

I didn't have much info on villain except for his numbers. He was 28/2.99/1.28 over 120+ hands. My table image had been very tight (not many cards), but I had played my hands strongly.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls $1.49 (All-In), 1 fold, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

Ok, a normally weak preflop villain capped. With the way I've been playing and his "style" (quoted since I have nothing but his numbers), I'm thinking AA/QQ, so I need to proceed cautiously.

Flop: (12.48 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero ?.

A ha, AA on the flop, so villain probably has QQ. Hmm...3-bet, that would tell me he's not too worried about the AA on board. The only hand that makes sense to me is AKs, but the pots pretty fat. Pay this off?

Aaron W. · #2 07-31-2005, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

I didn't have much info on villain except for his numbers. He was 28/2.99/1.28 over 120+ hands. My table image had been very tight (not many cards), but I had played my hands strongly.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls $1.49 (All-In), 1 fold, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

Ok, a normally weak preflop villain capped. With the way I've been playing and his "style" (quoted since I have nothing but his numbers), I'm thinking AA/QQ, so I need to proceed cautiously.

Flop: (12.48 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero ?.

A ha, AA on the flop, so villain probably has QQ. Hmm...3-bet, that would tell me he's not too worried about the AA on board. The only hand that makes sense to me is AKs, but the pots pretty fat. Pay this off?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think Mr. 3% preflop capper and flop 3-bettor loses to KK 25% of the time?

Doc7 · #3 07-31-2005, 01:33 AM

I don't...

that is the right answer, right?

hemstock · #4 07-31-2005, 01:37 AM

I'd fold against a 3% PF raiser

AngelicPenguin · #5 07-31-2005, 01:43 AM

I should be able to do this math better and quicker. How do you get 25%? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Master5hake · #6 07-31-2005, 01:48 AM

Folding against a guy with such a low % PFR would look like a no brainer, outside any other information -
BUT....

one thing to look out for with oppenents with such low PFR numbers though is that many players that will only raise with high pocket pairs - will keep pushing those hands till the end no matter the board

"By god, I got pocket Jacks, one of the 4 hands I'll raise, its only fair i win this pot, and overcards be damned, I'm pushing these guys until I hit major resistance, godamn I am so disiplined that once I get one of these 4 hands its my right to win this hand'

I've had more than a few mice slow me down on a paired Ace with a good kicker after an Ace has flopped with them having lower pocket pairs

just food for thought

hemstock · #7 07-31-2005, 01:58 AM

Yeah that can happen too. But a player who is that disciplines will often have a vp even less than 15. In the case of the villain here I don't think that's the case.

Aaron W. · #8 07-31-2005, 10:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I should be able to do this math better and quicker. How do you get 25%? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That was more need-sleep rambling. Here's the right calculation (now that I'm awake):

13 SB in the pot at the beginning of the flop
Bet-raise-3-bet = 5 SB in the pot
Total = 18 SB in the pot

If you call down, it costs you 5 SB. Villian will invest 4 SB to make you call down. So you're getting 22:5 to call down, which is right between 4:1 and 5:1 (estimate to be 18-19%).