Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-28-2005, 08:19 PM
AA suited AA suited is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 14
Default Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-28-2005, 09:39 PM
mannika mannika is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: KTown Ghetto
Posts: 291
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

=1-(prob of not making boat/quads)

= 1-(40/47)(36/46)

= 33.4%
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-28-2005, 09:41 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
flopped a set

6:1 to make boat/quad on turn (7 outs)
4:1 to make boat/quad on river (10 outs)

if i went all in on flop, what are the odds to make a boat/quad by showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have no information about what anyone else has, you will fill up 7/47 + (40/47)(10/46) = 33.4%.

If you know your opponent has a flush, you will fill up 7/45 + (6/45)(9/44)+(32/45)(10/44) = 341/990 = 34.4%. The middle term comes from when the turn would pair your opponent, giving you only 9 outs on the river. It is slightly more likely that you fill up if you know your opponent is not blocking the board from pairing.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=988421
Board: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656
7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344

If you know your opponent has a straight or a baby flush, you get the same probability to fill up, but you also have outs to tie.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-29-2005, 10:08 AM
AA suited AA suited is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 14
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

33% = 3:1?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-29-2005, 11:44 AM
olavfo olavfo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 303
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
33% = 3:1?

[/ QUOTE ]
33% = 2:1

You make it 1 out of 3 times and fail 2 out of 3 times. The odds are therefore 2:1 against.

olavfo
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-30-2005, 07:21 PM
mw999 mw999 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

New to board. I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner? My math shows that runner runner is 6.5%.
2nd question. what are the odds and percentage of the board paring at each stage? thoughts please. MW
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-31-2005, 08:15 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen various percentages above 33%. Ccould this be due to runner runner?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean something like a flop of AKQ, turn 6, river 6? That is included in the calculations. It is why people say that you have 7 outs to fill up on the turn, and if you miss, you have 10 outs to fill up on the river.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-31-2005, 09:30 AM
mw999 mw999 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3
Default Re: Probability to make boat/quads from flopped set?

I understand. two different internet sites have it listed as 37%. I will stick to the 33%. Thanks for info. MW
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.