Nut flush draw on a paired board

How does one factor in the chance that "if I hit my draw, I could still lose to a full house" in a hand like this? Sure it's unlikely, but there's a good chance that such a scenario would result in deep losses on the river.

[Greg J]

Typically you should weigh outs accordingly. Instead of counting an out that pairs the board as a full outs, you should typically count it as .5 or .75 outs, depending on the action. EDIT: I got this hand mixed up with another one -- in this hand I would lean more towards .75 outs.

[jrz1972]

When the board is paired, you want a little more overlay than usual. But you've got that here.

On the flop, you only need two callers (normally) for bets/raises to be for value. With four opponents and the possibility of a free card on the next street, that's plenty of extra sweetener to compensate for the paired board.

On the turn, you're getting 4.5:1 on a call (I think). At first glance, that seems a little thin considering the paired board, but you have to factor in that we're getting some extra river bets if we hit, and we might even win by spiking an ace. We also clean up if we catch a 5. Easy call.

If you make your flush on the river, you just need to be a little more careful than normal. I would raise a river bet but only call if I get 3-bet.

Basically, if you don't occasionally get taken to the cleaners in a flush-vs-boat situation, you're probably not playing right.

[ QUOTE ]
Typically you should weigh outs accordingly. Instead of counting an out that pairs the board as a full outs, you should typically count it as .5 or .75 outs, depending on the action. EDIT: I got this hand mixed up with another one -- in this hand I would lean more towards .75 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

sooo... on the side of caution (.50 outs) my diamond out go from 9 to 4.5. Therefore I am NOT getting correct pot odds to call (9 to 1 for winning) vs (3.5 to 1 on my $). Even assuming the better will pay me off another $2 if I hit, my implied odds are a sorry (4.5 to 1).

Correct me if i'm wrong.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
When the board is paired, you want a little more overlay than usual. But you've got that here.

On the flop, you only need two callers (normally) for bets/raises to be for value. With four opponents and the possibility of a free card on the next street, that's plenty of extra sweetener to compensate for the paired board.

On the turn, you're getting 4.5:1 on a call (I think). At first glance, that seems a little thin considering the paired board, but you have to factor in that we're getting some extra river bets if we hit, and we might even win by spiking an ace. We also clean up if we catch a 5. Easy call.

If you make your flush on the river, you just need to be a little more careful than normal. I would raise a river bet but only call if I get 3-bet.

Basically, if you don't occasionally get taken to the cleaners in a flush-vs-boat situation, you're probably not playing right.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is all very sound advice.

[ QUOTE ]
We also clean up if we catch a 5. Easy call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't have the hand history in front of me at the time of making the post, and turns out I didn't actually pair my 5 on the board. The REAL board showed:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Sorry for the confusion. Still think it was an easy call?

[jrz1972]

Yeah I still call. You can't fear a boat every time the board is paired. Most of the time trips aren't even out, let alone a boat. I actually do think we'll usually take this down (or chop) if an A hits.