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#1
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ok, some of these posts are kind of bothering me, so I'm going to throw in my 2 cents. I am going to be kind of a nit to all of the people talking about winrates, because in all honesty they don't mean much. Even after 100k hands at a given limit you still may be quite far from your true winrate. That being said, since not many of us have the time to play a million hands at each level, we must infer some things from short term results. [/ QUOTE ] I find it hard to believe that after 100,000 hands you can be quite far from your true winrate. And, yes, I've taken statistics courses. [/ QUOTE ] How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level? I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind. |
#2
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
[ QUOTE ]
How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level? I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind. [/ QUOTE ] Even I know the answer!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Assuming that after 100,000 hands you have a winrate of 3 bb/100, and a SD of 15 bb/100, the .95 confidence level is: [2.070307452, 3.929692548] so, we can be almost an entire bb/100 off from our "true" winrate. (I think). The .99 CI is: [1.778176881, 4.221823119] And that's even bigger. So basically, you can never really know your "true" winrate. |
#3
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
Shadow, you rock. In fact, I'd say that you almost invariably rock. You're +EV. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
OOC, how did you come up with that range? It's been like 2-3 years since I've learned this. --Dave. |
#4
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
linky from FAQ
This might be what you're looking for. Bisonbison's formulas are for /100 hands rather than /hour. You can have a lot of fun playing around with the ranges |
#5
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
DavidC:
Yes, indeed, I do fuking rock. More than you can imagine, even. But y'all can just ask your girlfriends to find out. Yes. All of them. jaxUp: Ugh, that link would have made my job a lot easier. That's a good link, everyone, and does exactly what the actual math does. later. |
#6
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Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level? I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind. [/ QUOTE ] Even I know the answer!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Assuming that after 100,000 hands you have a winrate of 3 bb/100, and a SD of 15 bb/100, the .95 confidence level is: [2.070307452, 3.929692548] so, we can be almost an entire bb/100 off from our "true" winrate. (I think). The .99 CI is: [1.778176881, 4.221823119] And that's even bigger. So basically, you can never really know your "true" winrate. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but you have to remember that it's a bell curve, so you're far more likely to be near the middle of that range than near the edges. In fact, without further evidence of the actual parameters, you must assume that your sample mean is the most probable value. I'm not saying it IS the parameter value... just that it's more likely to be the actual value than any other value in that range due to the inherent probabilities in bell curves. What you're describing is the 95% and 99% CIs, so it's "possible" that your actual winrate is really outside that range....but not likely. The odds are that it's nearer to the sample mean. If you do a linear analysis of your variance and find that each block of 5k hands is statistically similar in variance (there is a test for this) to the others, then you can assume that your winrate after 20k hands is your actual winrate for that type of play. Some would argue that 10k is enough if you're a very consistent player. |
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