Put to the test and failed

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t10097)
Hero (t8685)
MP1 (t22570)
MP2 (t11480)
MP3 (t6960)
CO (t8030)
Button (t7168)
SB (t6245)
BB (t5120)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t900) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1400</font>, CO folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t4895</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t7195

Is the flop raise a bad line here?

[mlagoo]

this all looks good except i might fold preflop (hate playing hands like that OOP). i wont fold that everytime... i would definitely fold it if id been very active recently. and i typically wouldnt play it without opening for a raise.

but i am pretty sure i'm always folding to the flop 3betpush from BB. is he really doing this with K7? it's possible hes doing it with J9 or a couple hearts... if so, good for him. i think if you call with top pair second kicker here everytime, its a loser in the long run.

[Exitonly]

i'm either folding or raise that PF. For some reason i'd limp occasionally if it were suited, dunno if that makes any sense.

I think i'd have to find a call there cause there are a few draws he could be doing this with, but i dont like the spot. And i'm not confident that this is right, at all.

I like the limp here. Dangerous spot to raise, so if you're beaten preflop, you'll likely find out and get away cheaply.

You took you're one shot at the pot, which you had to do, but I don't think you're ahead often enough to risk half your remaining stack on this hand. And if he's bluffing, chances are you'll have another opportunity to pick him off later.

This is a very good hand to post. I think every decision you made is close, but your line is definitely not horrible and may be best.

Incidentally, I play just about every part differently.

[mlagoo]

i wanted to add that whats funny about this hand is that if not for CO and SB being in the hand, i probably just push after BB raises, and he doesn't get the chance to semibluff me off my hand. or, alternatively, he DOES get the chance to double through me with his T8.

donkdonkdonk...

Thanks for the replies.

I was curious to see if it would have been better to call the flop bet and seeing what develops on the turn. This would have cost me 600 chips instead of 1400 and would give me the chance to test him if a scare card drops. My hand could also improve.

Noah, would like to hear how you would have played it.

[jcm4ccc]

I think it’s a clear call, once you work out the math.

I calculate that you will lose, on average, 1460 chips when you are behind on the flop. I am assuming that, if you are behind, you have about 5 outs. I count the 2 kings. I give you two outs (rather than three) for your queens. I also throw in another out there for the odd result (runner runner, the board pairing and counterfeiting his two pair). 5 outs is about 20% chance of hitting by the river. So 80% of the time you lose 3495 chips, and 20% of the time you gain 7195 chips. Net loss: 1460 chips.

I calculate that you will gain, on average, 3667 chips when the BB is working on a draw. I give the BB 8.5 outs (average between a straight draw and flush draw). He will hit his outs 33% of the time. So 33% of the time you lose 3495 chips, and 67% of the time you gain 7195 chips. Net gain: 3667 chips.

This formula tells you how often the BB has to be working on a flush draw to make this call a break-even proposition:

0 = 3667(x) – 1460(1-x), where x = the percentage of time the BB is working on a flush draw.

Solving for x, you get 28.5%. So 3667 (.285) – 1460 (.715) = 0.

This means that if the BB is working on a draw more than 28.5% of the time, then you should call. I believe that is the case here.

Wow I didnt expect it to be that close. I get crushed alot when I end up calling in spots like these.

Im not sure what the right % of time my opponent will be on a draw. It might be +30% but I wonder if its more like 20%-25% in which case its a fold.

I guess its a borderline call.