KJs vs a raiser.

winky51 · #1 11-11-2005, 10:58 AM

Was involved in a hand where I was MP3 with KJs (spades). UTG, EP2 called, I called, CO called, BUT raised, BB called, 6 callers in all to see the flop.

The board came all low cards with 1 spade. I had 2 overs and a backdoor flush. The pot was giving 14.5:1. All checked to the PF raiser who bet. I was sure he had a big pair AA-JJ. He was an average player.

Now the question is was it worth calling for one more?

I figured it was. I possibly had one over, and a backdoor. I figured my hand was good for about 4 outs. 4% to make the flush, 3% my K is good (he had QQ or JJ) Figured with so many poor players in the pot someone had an Ace lowering the AA posibility and I had a K lowering the KK possibility. I figured I needed 14:1. pot was 14.5 to one. With implied I figured I had a shot.

Was this a reasonable thought process for this hand? My natural tight play said no, my instincts and logic said yes.

Soh · #2 11-11-2005, 11:07 AM

"I was sure he had a big pair AA-JJ. He was an average player."

If he's an average player, he could've had TT or AKs.
If you're sure, of course you need to fold that hand, but I don't think you can be sure that he had AA - JJ.

Also, you could've raised before the flop.

Soh

peterchi · #3 11-11-2005, 11:13 AM

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All checked to the PF raiser who bet. I was sure he had a big pair AA-JJ. He was an average player.

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No chance he had AK/AQ?

Yeah I'll see a turn here every time. Like you said, you don't need to hit very often at all for this to be profitable.

peterchi · #4 11-11-2005, 11:22 AM

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If you're sure, of course you need to fold that hand, but I don't think you can be sure that he had AA - JJ.

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Even if you are sure that this is his range, I think you can continue. OP's estimation of about 4 outs against this range of hands is reasonable, and that's good enough to see a turn for 14.5:1.

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Also, you could've raised before the flop.

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I agree with this, didn't notice that at first.

BigEndian · #5 11-11-2005, 11:33 AM

I would peel. There's also the chance you are wrong in what you expect your opponent to be raising.

- Jim

winky51 · #6 11-11-2005, 11:33 AM

I thought about that too. But sometimes I mix it up a bit. I have noticed that there are a lot more tight players on 3/6. Usually very ABC type like I used to play 1 year ago. Mixing it up seems to get them confused at times. I raise a lot also. hate playing ABC.

Also the Button's ikon got excited when he looked at his cards. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Soh · #7 11-11-2005, 01:54 PM

"OP's estimation of about 4 outs against this range of hands is reasonable..."

Not so fast.

If he has AA or KK, you're virtually drawn dead. Half the time that he has QQ or JJ, you have to hit your 3 outs. Since the ohter half the time, you're (virtually) drawn dead, this is like 1.5 out. Also, don't forget that you could get raised behind.

Soh

MainEvent · #8 11-11-2005, 02:10 PM

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Was involved in a hand where I was MP3

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Steve Nash posts at 2+2? Awesome.

I think the peel was okay. I've been finding places to do this. I'm not sure that I give you the full 4 outs though. It's going to cost you a decent amount of chips if you hit your K and happen to be up against AA or KK.

If you hit a K on the turn and it is checked to you, do you bet out and fold to a raise? I'm wondering if two pair outs are worth drawing to at that point when they have a small chance of being tainted.

peterchi · #9 11-11-2005, 02:17 PM

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If he has AA or KK, you're virtually drawn dead.

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1.5 outs is not drawing dead, or even "virtually" drawing dead. 1.5 outs is not insignificant in a huge pot. And this is only against two specific hands in his range.

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Also, don't forget that you could get raised behind.

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Who is going to raise behind? It got checked to the button, who bets. If a guy in early position makes it two bets to you, you can fold since now you're only getting like 7:1-ish. There's only one guy who can raise after you call one bet. And even if he does, that's fine because now the pot is just getting even more bloated for your backdoor flush.

Soh · #10 11-11-2005, 07:31 PM

What I ment to say was, not counting the flush draw, if you're against AA or KK, you almost have no outs, thus virtually drawing dead, while against QQ or JJ, you have about 3 outs. Since half the time you have 0 outs, and the other half of the time, you have 3 outs, I just divided the 3 in half, thus 1.5.

Assuming the flush is good, he has 1.5 + 1 = 2.5 outs (not counting runner-runner miracle.) I still think you should fold, especially because you'll lose some money when you hit K or J and lose.

Soh