Do you think this is for real? Israel gearing up to attack Iran...

[BluffTHIS!]

Don't let this turn on the standard of rationality, but on their intentions.

[sam h]

This just looks like standard-issue brinksmanship to me. Israel isn't committing to anything, just letting Iran know where it stands a bit more forcefully. As the article notes, theres also a domestic political calculus here. Sharon has completely outfoxed the right and Netanyahu's best hope is to shift the debate away from policy vis-a-vis the Palestinians to others like this. Sharon doesn't need to committ to do anything, just to look strong enough to keep this issue from becoming divisive.

The underlying problem with all of this speculation is that its obviously pointless to launch this kind of attack unless you can really destroy the nuclear capability, and its hard to really know if this is possible. Just the fact that they are saying they need ground operations makes me pretty skeptical, though.

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...Just the fact that they are saying they need ground operations makes me pretty skeptical, though.

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Because of the improved underground building/protective processes, Israel can't take out all the facilities with their limited air power and armament. They'll have to go in - fast, hard and nasty.

They've already admitted they don't know where all the facilities are. No one does. That would mean they have to have free access to the people who do know and the ability to physically confirm the existence/purpose of a facility.

[BluffTHIS!]

There is no way Israel has the capability to put significant ground forces in Iran. No way. Their only options are aerial bombardment, inserting special ops units, or using a nuke.

Or of course the last option which is getting the US to do it for/in conjunction with, them.

[zipo]

>>Don't let this turn on the standard of rationality, but on their intentions. <<

Well, given that the President of Iran recently, and very publicly, announced Iran's intention to "wipe Israel off the map", it seems that Iran's intention in this regard is unambiguous, and crystal clear.

Logistically, Israel would have a very difficult task on its hands to wipe out Iran's nuclear capability. But from Israel's point of view, the risk and the effort of military action to accomplish this is probably worthwhile.

[sam h]

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There is no way Israel has the capability to put significant ground forces in Iran. No way. Their only options are aerial bombardment, inserting special ops units, or using a nuke.

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I agree but I can't see the special forces stuff working either. If they can't do it by air, I think they can't do it at all. They're not going to just drop special forces teams in there and successfully storm all of these heavily guarded underground facilities (whose whereabouts may not be completely known).

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I agree but I can't see the special forces stuff working either. If they can't do it by air, I think they can't do it at all. They're not going to just drop special forces teams in there and successfully storm all of these heavily guarded underground facilities (whose whereabouts may not be completely known).

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You and Bluff are both partially right. Israel doesn't have a "standing army" in the usual sense. They're limited in resources in other ways, also. The fact that they'd have to cross Syria (short trip) and all of Iraq gives them a ton of problems.

They do have something not found in many countries. A national resolve. A resolve to survive - no matter what. Almost every single Israeli male and female is, in someway, involved in their national defense program. They get the call, they go. They do what's asked of them.

It's been a lot of years since that little trip to the airport at Entebbe. They learned a lot there. And I have no doubt they are light years ahead today in capability.

They don't know where all the facilities are, no. But they do know where the Command and Control Centers are. They do know more than a little about Iran's communication and power grids. There probably aren't many key military facilities they don't know about.

It can, to my way of thinking, be done.

[BluffTHIS!]

Also, even though Iran's research and production facilities may be distributed to prevent their all being able to be destroyed in a single attack, uless they have duplication, Israel only has to get one or two in order to set back the whole program by years.

Also the US can provide them with bunker busting bombs/warheads.

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Also, even though Iran's research and production facilities may be distributed to prevent their all being able to be destroyed in a single attack, uless they have duplication, Israel only has to get one or two in order to set back the whole program by years.

Also the US can provide them with bunker busting bombs/warheads.

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Good point about not taking out everything. The missiles Israel popped 'em with some years back must have put a wrench in the program. And probably what would/will happen again. If they believe that solves the problem - for another 10 years or so.

If they don't believe that will suffice, bet on their doing a lot more.

I have no doubt we've supplied Israel with whatever their planes can use. If it'll hang, it's hangin'. Or can be a in short time. Plus, we may not know about something they've developed on their own. They're not stupid about weaponry development/manufacture.

[sam h]

I don't doubt Israel's national resolve, but that's not a magic bullet. It's not like its that difficult for a country with a very developed military and decent intelligence service to guard a bunch of small, already fortified locations against an attack from special forces troops that they are waiting for. This isn't GI Joe. They might be able to do it through airpower, but if not they are screwed.