At Party: January 2005 sign-ups, less than 30% still play there(+more - Page 3

smb394 · #1 09-12-2005, 05:23 PM

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'A couple of thousand expert poker players are winning loads of money from the thousands who are just not very good at it,' says Greg Feehely, leisure analyst at Altium Securities. 'They will wise up and go and put their money on the horses or play an online casino game.'

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edit: too slow

BruinEric · #2 09-12-2005, 05:24 PM

If this article is any indication, the growth-rate obsessives still dominate the landscape of investing.

Party probably deserves this. Without knowing the answer, I'd expect that the Party IPO hyped up the "rapid growth" angle, thus ensuring that any slip in such a growth rate would result in bearishness and articles such as this.

If I were Party, my float would have been based on this premise: "Whether the online poker market grows or shrinks, we intend to be the dominant force in the industry. Our costs are low and margins/profit astoundingly high. Will will pay dividends to our ownership (i.e. the stockholders) so that you share in our success as well as our small risks."

Of course, this explains why I enjoyed my 12 to 15% Canroy dividends back in 2003 and 2004.

mackthefork · #3 09-13-2005, 05:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If this article is any indication, the growth-rate obsessives still dominate the landscape of investing.

Party probably deserves this. Without knowing the answer, I'd expect that the Party IPO hyped up the "rapid growth" angle, thus ensuring that any slip in such a growth rate would result in bearishness and articles such as this.

If I were Party, my float would have been based on this premise: "Whether the online poker market grows or shrinks, we intend to be the dominant force in the industry. Our costs are low and margins/profit astoundingly high. Will will pay dividends to our ownership (i.e. the stockholders) so that you share in our success as well as our small risks."

Of course, this explains why I enjoyed my 12 to 15% Canroy dividends back in 2003 and 2004.

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Good post, you are almost certainly bang on.

Mack

Neil Stevens · #4 09-12-2005, 05:25 PM

So let's get this straight: A large, thriving, successful business doesn't keep growing exponentially, and now it's doomed?

The losing players are going to decide to quit losing money, by moving it to guaranteed losing gambles?

Getting out of Party Poker now is like folding every AA to a bet on the flop in Hold'em, because you think someone got a set. You're just seeing monsters that aren't there.

lefty rosen · #5 09-12-2005, 05:26 PM

The NL players do........ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Timer · #6 09-12-2005, 07:32 PM

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So let's get this straight: A large, thriving, successful business doesn't keep growing exponentially, and now it's doomed?

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Of course not. But what it is NOT is a growth stock, as it was touted. Anyone could see that, but the question remains how long will it take until the owners become fully vested.

Neil Stevens · #7 09-13-2005, 12:14 AM

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Of course not. But what it is NOT is a growth stock, as it was touted. Anyone could see that, but the question remains how long will it take until the owners become fully vested.

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But they are still growing. They're just not going to keep growing geometrically. If growth stocks are those that grow geometrically, then anyone who thought Party Poker was a growht stock, knowing its size, was an idiot.

lu_hawk · #8 09-12-2005, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So let's get this straight: A large, thriving, successful business doesn't keep growing exponentially, and now it's doomed?

The losing players are going to decide to quit losing money, by moving it to guaranteed losing gambles?

Getting out of Party Poker now is like folding every AA to a bet on the flop in Hold'em, because you think someone got a set. You're just seeing monsters that aren't there.

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if the stock was being valued based on huge growth and that growth slows down significantly then the stock will fall significantly. doesn't mean the business is doomed but you will lose money if you buy overvalued stocks.

krazyace5 · #9 09-12-2005, 09:38 PM

This stuck out for me...

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That may continue: while a fifth of the travel industry has already migrated to the internet, only 5 per cent of gaming is currently carried out online.

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lu_hawk · #10 09-13-2005, 03:11 PM

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This stuck out for me...

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That may continue: while a fifth of the travel industry has already migrated to the internet, only 5 per cent of gaming is currently carried out online.

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it's not a good analogy. there is no reason why 100% of the travel industry shouldn't conduct it's business online. but people like to go to casinos and have fun there, 99% of craps is always going to be played in brick & mortar casinos.