Is having the initiative a fundamental advantage?

[elindauer]

In a high stakes game where the players are able to remember things like who raised before the flop, etc etc, is having the initiative, ie, putting in the last bet in the previous round, a fundamental advantage?


By fundamental, I mean an advantage that cannot be overcome by your opponents playing well. For example, having position is a fundamental advantage because no matter how well your opponent plays, he must act first.

There is lots of talk on these boards about "seizing the initiative" and "taking control of the hand" etc, generally defending aggressive play. I still think aggressive play is good, but for other reasons. I'm starting to think that "the initiative" is actually a rather unimportant thing, assuming your opponents play well.


I'd argue that what's important is this:

- the size of the pot
- the hand range you put your opponent on
- the hand range you think he puts you on
etc.

for as many levels as you want to go.



Here's an example in which "initiative" is distinguished from "hand range" to show the point clearly:

I raise in the CO with AA. The big blind calls.

Flop: 992

The button checks and raises. I know that the button would always slowplay a 9 here, so I call with aces. The button now has the initiative, but in fact, having the initiative here has hurt his chances of winning the pot, because it has defined his hand range very clearly. There is no way I can be outplayed on the turn now that he has the initiative.

This is an extreme example, but it shows the point. The initiative in itself is meaningless. All that matters is the hand ranges. The initiative tends to be correlated with stronger hand ranges which leads to folds, but you can easily imagine situations or playing styles where this would not be the case. Imagine a Tommy Angelo-style player who does a lot of calling even with very big hands. Not having the initiative makes little difference in his ability to bluff at various points and take it down immediately.

Perhaps the most compelling argument against the initiative being important in and of itself is this: any player could defeat this advantage by simply forgetting who raised last round!

thanks,
Eric


ps. am I the only person left on this site that is not a moderator?