AQo HU, missing the flop OOP

[Luke]

Party 5/10

You raise in EP with AQo and get called by one player, an LP unknown.

Flop comes K74r. You bet and are called.
Turn brings a 9 completing the rainbow.

How do you guys proceed and does changing the texture of the flop slightly (ie. making it 2-tone) change the your play?

Luke

[newhizzle]

i usually bet again and take a free showdown, a lot of players will peel one on the flop and fold on the turn, if there was a flush draw, id be more likely to bet again, reads can also affect this decision

edit: just realized im in EP, i still usually bet, but i dont know how right it is

[toss]

Reads are important so without them I have to make wild assumptions. Villain coldcall in LP so I'm going to assume for now that he's a looser player. We bet and he calls. We missed the flop, but villain will also miss the flop a lot. However the raggedy board makes it more likely that he either hit a pair or is calling with a Pocket Pair. The turn brings another card. We have Ace high and the pot is 3.5 BB big. I like betting here since I think our Ace high is good + villain will fold about 30% of the time. I bet planning on check/folding the river. If villain bets I just have to assume our ace high is no good.

[toss]

I'd wish there was more discussion on this thread as this situation comes up frequently. Is it pointless making a decision without reads? It the decision to bet or check so close it doesn't matter?

[Borodog]

Betting gives your opponent the opportunity to fold that checking does not. Furthermore, continued heads-up followup betting will earn you extra action when you're holding AK, KQ, AA, KK and not AQ. So many unknown players, especially those who are cold calling preflop, are going to see 6 cards by God if it kills them.

In the absence of reads this is an easy turn bet for me.

Besides, the absence of a raise on the flop probably means that if he does have a pair, it most likely isn't a king. He'll let you know on the turn if you're beat. Unless he's in there with something like A7s, you probably have 6 clean outs, and the turn bet is just a good solid semi-bluff.

[Luke]

I agree reads can be important but I was just looking for a baseline play I guess. Instead, let me propose 3 different possible opponents and assume all you know is their VP$P/PFR/Agg:

1. 15/6/.5
2. 23/10/1.2
3. 32/8/1.0

How would you play against each of those guys in this spot?

Luke

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree reads can be important but I was just looking for a baseline play I guess. Instead, let me propose 3 different possible opponents and assume all you know is their VP$P/PFR/Agg:

1. 15/6/.5
2. 23/10/1.2
3. 32/8/1.0

How would you play against each of those guys in this spot?

Luke

[/ QUOTE ]

In a situation like this I look at the cold call% in pokerace and fold to turn bet stats.

the first player you list is likely to have a PP or, another AQ possibly, in my experience, but without a further read I don't know how likely he is to fold it if I bet. I'd want to know things like these stats against the other two, but I feel i'm more likely to bet again against them.

-WT

[flopmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree reads can be important but I was just looking for a baseline play I guess. Instead, let me propose 3 different possible opponents and assume all you know is their VP$P/PFR/Agg:

1. 15/6/.5
2. 23/10/1.2
3. 32/8/1.0

How would you play against each of those guys in this spot?
against 1.) i check fold 2.) bet 3.) bet

Luke

[/ QUOTE ]

[Waloonga]

This goes to show how important reads are, but also concentration at the table. When I multi-table with 3-4 tables OR playing 1-2 tables, but doing something else at the same time (TV, checking emails) I will many times play this incorrectly. If the player has been inclined to fold if he doesn't hit top pair, I'll bet. If he will see the river as long as he's connected with one of the cards making a pair or holding a PP, I may bet the turn, check/folding the river or check/folding the turn even.

[Luke]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree reads can be important but I was just looking for a baseline play I guess. Instead, let me propose 3 different possible opponents and assume all you know is their VP$P/PFR/Agg:

1. 15/6/.5
2. 23/10/1.2
3. 32/8/1.0

How would you play against each of those guys in this spot?
against

1.) i check fold 2.) bet 3.) bet



[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much agree with your suggested lines, but in instance 2 and 3, how are you handling the river?

I'm usually checkfolding at that point but will check/call against some more loose/aggressive opponents. I almost never bet again in that spot.

Luke