60% ATS NFL 12 of 13 years winners 367-261 - Page 2

Webster · #11 08-18-2005, 02:39 PM

I did?

1. It's a system, I try to keep my brain out of it - if teh starting QB goes down - I STILL play the system, the line takes care of everything.

2. It picks games that are NORMALLY either low profile - for instance - If the Pats were Playing SF. That is a pretty low profile game as far as betting is - sure - both teams are well know but really - who cares - The Pats will win and MOST people that bet on he NFL will not play it because the line will be -16 or something. BUT - what is the REAL line - -18? -12?

Mose wagerers do not understand the difference between point spreads and REAL lines. This takes into account the REAL line and the difference that linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation.

When I say "I" am picking games - I mean the system is - a monkee can actually (if he know the parameters and had a working thumb).

The 3+1 Challenge?? problem is - it does not pick games every week - sometimes 2 games - somethmes 8. If "the system" (almost said "I'm") is forced to pick 4 games a week - It's doomed.

Plus - no picks until Week #4 - it needs to get momentum one way or the other.

craig r · #12 08-18-2005, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I am officially unsold. Don't tell me you think they want even action on a given game.

craig

#13 08-18-2005, 02:46 PM

If it means anything, the system I use is probably pretty similar to Webster's -- know the parameters in the spreadsheet, let the line account for injuries etc., then make the play. Like him, I have no trends that are specific to the level of profile of a game, whether it's played at night, anything like that.

The only thing I'm not crazy about with Webster's system is it only gives you 3 plays per week (628 plays divided by 13 years, divided by 17 games per year). If you're only doing 3/week, 58.4% winners is the least you need to provide enough variance against an occasional unprofitable season.

The 3+1 game s/b very interesting.

Webster · #14 08-18-2005, 02:55 PM

Well -

1. it does not matter

2. yes - I think traps are pretty much urban legends - makes no sense at all. The ONLY time it makes sense is on the local level like beting on Green Bay in Wisconsin where we pay a 1.5 point Packer tax.

3. even if I'm wrong - it does not matter - as long as it keeps picking winners SOMETHING must be working LOL.

4. Its a combination of things, not just lines, not just how many people are picking a team, not just home dog and away favs (which are the "A" games for the most part) not just the COLD teams playing HOT teams. It's a soup of things that all come togather 60 times a year in the NFL.

I've never had a system work for more then 4 or 5 years - this one? just keeps going, sooner or later it'll crash and I'll look like a jerk, but, I've been saying that for 8 years.

PLUS - I'm not trying to SELL anything - public service - just extra information to add to the collective. Use it as a tool. I'm just tossing it out - here it is - if you want it take it - no strings.

gomberg · #15 08-19-2005, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

linemankers have to adjust to try to get a 50/50 betting correlation

Well, I am officially unsold. Don't tell me you think they want even action on a given game.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi all - this is my first post in the sports betting forum. I'm going to start getting into it. I just read a paper that was interesting about how a bookie makes lines to affect betting tendancies. It looks like bookies DO NOT try to split the betting pool and increase their profits by a lot throughout a typical season.

This paper was written by the guy who wrote freakonomics. Lots of good papers on his site.

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...nction2004.pdf

tech · #16 08-19-2005, 12:59 AM

This is very very very borderline for what will be tolerated here. The only reason I didn't delete this thread was because it did generate some discussion.

In the future, please just post your picks if you want and be done with it. Advertising outside sites is not acceptable unless you buy an ad from 2+2.

ftball0000 · #17 08-19-2005, 02:23 AM

I say post your system, and prove us wrong

TheGame1020 · #18 08-19-2005, 04:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]

2. yes - I think traps are pretty much urban legends - makes no sense at all. The ONLY time it makes sense is on the local level like beting on Green Bay in Wisconsin where we pay a 1.5 point Packer tax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost every public play in the NFL is a trap.

robokop · #19 08-19-2005, 04:17 AM

He posted his picks last year on Bonus Whores. I followed them. I made money. Your results may vary.

Geez, you guys are cynical.

craig r · #20 08-19-2005, 04:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He posted his picks last year on Bonus Whores. I followed them. I made money. Your results may vary.

Geez, you guys are cynical.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right...lets just trust some guy who comes in here and claims 60%. Over 12 seasons none the less. Of course we are going to be cynical. But, in all seriousness..if it stimulated debate beyond what is normally on this forum, I am all for it.

Of course, sometimes Tech says things that are sooooooo stimulaing I can barely sit still....wait..did I type that??

craig