NFL Plays for Week 14 (Six Plays)

I have picked up a great deal from both two plus two and EOG.com, so I wanted to contribute my analysis on six plays I have on for the weekend.

Dallas/Kansas City Under 43.5/44 (210/200 under 43.5, 220/200 Under 44

Washington/Arizona Over 40 (220/200 over 40, 200/200 over 41.5)

Minnesota/St. Louis Under 45.5 440/400

Green Bay/Detroit Under 36.5 210/200

Chicago +7 vs Pittsburgh (460/400)

Tampa Bay/Carolina Under 36.5 (110/100)

Analysis Below:

Under 43.5 in Dallas/KC

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The cowboys get back their all-pro corner Anthony Henry, who has 36 tackles in 8 games, showing his ability to not only be a lock-down corner but come up and play run support. His presense this week is going to have a dramatic schematic impact on how their front seven is able to apply pressure on Trent Green by shutting down Larry Johnson. Without a viable play action passing game, K.C. will struggle in this one. The Cowboys gave up 115 yds to Tiki Barber without their all-pro corner in the lineup as Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer had to provide help to backup cornerback Aaron Glenn, but schemed very well against Shuan Alexander, only 61 yds in 20 carries, as well as SD's Tomlinson to 72 yds on 19 carries with Henry in the lineup.
Dallas is not out of the woods either as their inability to run of late with Left Tackle Flozell Adams out can play right into K.C's emerging defensive front 7, who have played competive football as Dallas has had trouble scoring a ton at home this year, outside of home game vs soft Arizona squad. Bottom line, I think the play of the week is under the total of 43.5 in this game as the inclement weather and penchant for both coaches to rely on their run games keeps this a low scoring field goal affair.

Chicago +7 vs Pittsburgh –
I am making a value play on a live underdog, who is going up against a Pittsburgh team that has shown no ability to run any kind of a seamless offense without a healthy QB Roethlisberger starting. I made this play at Millennium sports b/c they gave me a half point for playing the game on Friday which allowed me to get 7 points laying 115/100. Despite high offensive output of 386 yds passing against Cincy last week, three inopportune interceptions killed drives as Rothlisburger’s last two starts following his injured knee raise questions on how healthy he is as against both Indianapolis and Cincinnati, appeared to be out of sync and offense couldn’t get out of it’s own way despite multiple opportunities afforded to them by both Indy and Cincy.
Pittsburgh’s defense has also raised some question as both Cincy and Indy moved at will against them. No question that QB Orton for the Bears is in no class as the two aforementioned offenses’ field generals, but more than willing to take full touchdown in what is like to shape up in a game of field goals with premium on points.
Without Roethlisberger in the lineup, Pittsburgh’s offense looked woeful and nearly lost at home to Baltimore on Monday night and need late FG drive to win. The following week they had trouble moving the ball and despite Green Bay having a 33-27 minute Time of Possession advantage and out gaining Pittsburgh 268 to 213, still found a way to lose the game as Pitt returned a Farve fumble for 75 yds to help them in the victory. They then come home and beat Cleveland, before losing three straight to Baltimore, Indy, and Cincy. They are now being asked to Lay 7 at home against a team that has the best defense in the NFL and there is some substantial value in there by playing Chicago.
Clearly Chi has offensive problems, but I am looking to fade Pittsburgh every game from here until the end of the season as past success has kept the oddsmaker from moving too quick to price in the noticeable demise of the Steelers.

Minnesota/St. Louis Under 45.5 pts- This is not your father’s Minnesota Vikings who relied on a potent aerial attack to get their points. Coach Tice has Vikings playing conservative ball control attack and improved defense puts Vikings in great position to make a run at the playoffs. Last four games Vikes defense has allowed 16 to Detroit, 12 to Cleveland, 17 to Green Bay, and 21 to the Giants at the Meadowlands with 3 of four games going under. QB Johnson has become comfortable as the starter and new style of ball control offense which runs for 4-5 yds at a time and completes passes for 7-10 yds at a time can chew up clock and is less prone to big turnovers which can kill under players. Tice has commented several times in press conference about pleasure over new offensive style. Minny defense is more than capable of shutting down St. Louis team that is struggling on offense as they put up 7 points against Washington last week, and have to pull off a miracle victory against Houston in the previous week despite being held to 3 pts in first half against Texans. The over in that game has forced Odds maker to make a higher total as still making a line on perception of both of these offensives of years gone by, however, circumstances and personnel have changed dramatically making the under the side I am playing.
Bottom line: Minny defensive pressure combined with injuries and inconsistent QB play for Rams has this game sitting with a total well under 45.5.


Washington/Arizona Over 40 pts-
Arizona squad penchant for going over has subsided last two weeks as Jacksonville backup QB Garrard missed numerous opportunities to exploit porous Arizona secondary who left Jacksonville receivers wide open and just missing the over 42, final 24-17. Last week at San Francisco, first pick in this year’s draft Smith, still with 0 TD/ 8 INT on season and QB rating of 28.1, was unable to convert against them as well making AZ defense appear to be stronger than reality. Looking for Washington RB Portis to move the ball at will setting up play action with Brunell who still has enough to capitalize on opportunities presented by AZ defense. On the other side of ball, think Warner at home has enough passing prowess to put points on the board and provide an inspired effort in this spot with final score sitting somewhere in the high 40’s to low 50’s. Again, another game where perception has changed and betting public trying to adjust to the two teams going 4-0 under in their last four combined contests. If this game was played two-three weeks ago, the total would be at 44-45.
Before last two weeks AZ defense allowed 28 to the Rams, 29 to Detroit, 33 to Seattle, and 34 at Dallas. With the dynamics of the last two weeks gleaned out, don’t see problem with Redskins posting number in mid to high 20’s and AZ scoring enough to send this game over the 40 points.

Green Bay / Detroit Under 36.5
Like the fact that Garcia is starting for Detroit as threat of quick TD strikes is limited. Garcia more of a dink and dunk QB, who is more likely to have drives end in field goals, than touchdowns against a Green Bay defense that hasn’t received much publicity but has quietly helped the Packers go under in 5 of last 6 with all of the attention on Brett Farve’s woes as aging QB. Pack D has held opponents to 12 pts at Chicago, 19 at Philly despite great field position for eagles rendering them only 1 red zone TD and 4 FGs, 20 to Vikings on gut wrenching 20-17 loss, 13 to Pittsburgh, and 21 to Cincy despite 5 INT by Farve. Game to be played at night where NFL FG kickers not particularly fond of elements this time of year putting premium on points and expect at least 2 missed FG’s of less than 40 yds bringing tremendous extra value to the under.
Detroit also establishing respectable under trend as well having 5 of last 7 fall below the total with only offensive output at home against AZ cardinals where they put up 29.
Bottom line- Like Green Bay’s defense to allow Garcia and Lions to move the ball but lack of consistency from both QB’s makes either team hard pressed to find the end zone consistently enough to hit over. This is a smaller play but willing to ride under trend on Green Bay as match up, weather, venue, and recent trends favors low scoring affair.

Any feedback on this would be appreciated as there is a ton of information out there on these games and this is simply my viewpoint on them. I look forward to the interaction and wish everyone luck on their plays...

[tech]

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Bottom line, I think the play of the week is under the total of 43.5 in this game as the inclement weather and penchant for both coaches to rely on their run games keeps this a low scoring field goal affair.


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I'm not sure how much it affects your thoughts on this under, but I live near Dallas and the weather Sunday is supposed to be 60 degrees and sunny ... not exactly inclement. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[miami32]

Well at first I thought your Washington play was bad but now that I think about it I like it a lot. I haven't spent that much time on sports this year but I do live in Washington and I very much follow the skins. Lavar is out, and the skins have been running the ball very well. I still think it's up in the air but who knows.

I have six plays up and frankly as any sports better or handicapper knows the only thing you can do it put yourself in a good position consistently and manage your bankroll and risk. Very similiar mindset in poker and trading. With that said, if i can win 4 out of the 6 games, I will be thrilled. There are always going to be unexpected things happen, so hopefully, the edge built in by handicapping the games helps us come out ahead...

Thanks for paying attention. I made a mistake on the weather for Dallas. When I was watching the weather channel yesterday, and was looking at the forecasts for teh weekend, I very clearly remembering them saying a %40 chance of precip. However, upon further review, the weather appears to be fine. With that said, the matchup in the game is something that has me excited on the under. I thought the weather would be an icing on the cake... no pun intended.
Again, thanks for the feedback.