AQ vs. overbet - sigh

I guess this play is VERY read dependant but unfortunately I didn't have a read on villian as he had only played about 12 hands with me. About 55/3 or so which doesn't mean much with such a small sample size.

Anyways here's how it went:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($22.95)
SB ($17.37)
BB ($16.90)
UTG ($18)
UTG+1 ($28.60)
MP1 ($28.50)
MP2 ($26.90)
Hero ($75.72)
CO ($12.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Qc, As. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
4 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB (poster) calls $0.90, 1 fold.

Flop: ($3.25) 4c, Qs, 4d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, Button folds, SB calls $2.

Turn: ($7.25) 5d (2 players)
SB calls $14.37 (All-In), Hero calls $14.37.

River: ($35.99) 7s (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $35.99


I couldn't see him playing a 4 like that. I mean, if he has a four, he slowplayed the flop and now he OVERBETS?! That just didn't match up. Maybe a Queen worse kicker, maybe the turn brought him some draw (lol), or most likely seemed to be a bluff.

Would YOU have laid this down?

p.s. I lost, but I won't say to what

[wyrd]

Plenty of fish play any two suited cards, so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a possible 4.

I'd fold. The way it's played he probably hit a set of 5s, giving him a boat. If he had a worse Q why would he suddenly go all-in? Makes no sense. If he had a 4 I could probably see him doing this because of the two diamonds. AA or KK I'd expect some sort of bet or raise on the flop.

So given the choices and the betting, I'd put him on a full house, 5s and 4s.

you, my friend, are very smart

he did hit the 5s full and I just wasn't smart enough to put 2+2 together (lol)

[theweatherman]

Most of the time the overbet is a trick. It makes you think why would he do this if hes ahead? but most of the time you are smoked.

This is probably a fold unless it is standard for him. Wait for a better spot and the nmake your move.

[wyrd]

[ QUOTE ]
you, my friend, are very smart

he did hit the 5s full and I just wasn't smart enough to put 2+2 together (lol)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not smart, I just play a lot of internet poker and I pay attention to general betting patterns (which is all you can do since you can't see your oppponenet). I watched that FullTilt show and the professionals had a suggestion on how to read people over the internet. Basically betting patterns during the hand tell a story. If you follow closely, it'll tell you exactly what your opponenet is holding, and by the end of the hand the story will be complete. That's probably the best advice I've ever gotten on how to read someones hand.

Basically speaking, the average joe internet player isn't very slick. They bet when they have something, call with mediocre hands (second pair or top pair w/ sucky kicker), and raise or go all-in when they hit the jackpot. I've learned the hard way that going all-in with a pair (even pocket AA or KK) isn't the brightest of moves when my opponent shoves his money in the pot on a dangerous looking board. I've also learned the hard way that when my opponent suddenly shoves his entire stack in the pot when he hasn't shown aggression the entire hand, he has a monster.

The funny thing is, you only learn your lesson when you lose your entire stack. The key is to pay attention as to why it happened, fix the leak in your game, and continue on. Then when the same situation happens again (and it will), you'll know to fold and not call.

[wyrd]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time the overbet is a trick. It makes you think why would he do this if hes ahead? but most of the time you are smoked.

This is probably a fold unless it is standard for him. Wait for a better spot and the nmake your move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got caught by that once, and it'll be the last time. I think the problem is us "2+2ers" overthink something so simple. We think in multiple dimensions, as in "what is he thinking I have? is he making a move?" But the fact is, most of the fish out there just don't give two whits about what you're holding, and are only paying attention to what they got. So in theory, they aren't trying to trick you, they're just thinking "omg I hit the jack pot! ALL-IN!"