BCS bowl lines are crazy

[MCS]

Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you think one player is worth 10 points?

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about that, but he only missed one game, right? Even if he's worth 21 points by himself, that still would be only 21 points in one game, which I doubt would have a 10-point impact in the end.

How much did his injury affect him in the other games?

[MyTurn2Raise]

right now I'm on Texas, FSU, Georgia, and Ohio State...guess I don't believe in sagarin

[smb394]

[ QUOTE ]
right now I'm on Texas, FSU, Georgia, and Ohio State...guess I don't believe in sagarin

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I ask why you're on FSU? I'm trying to get an unbiased opinion here. What do you think would be an appropriate spread for you to consider taking PSU?

[MyTurn2Raise]

Well...I've been fading PSU all year and it's bit me hard

FSU defense is monstrous. Michael Robinson will not have time to throw and be back to his turnover prone ways. I liken the PSU offense to a slightly worse version of Virginia Tech. Sure, PSU will stop FSU, but everyone does. I see a 16-12 type game.

The match-ups favor FSU. While PSU's florida recruits were quicker than nearly all big10 recruits, these were the guys passed over by FSU, Florida, and the U. With the speed edge gone from the Nittany Lion offense, I'm skeptical they will adjust well. Of course, I do like Galen Hall and he might be able to pull some good stuff with a month of preparation.

I also think the Big10 is seriously overrated. I think tOSU is awesome, but highly question the rest of the league. IMO, FSU played a much more difficult schedule.

Also, it's a long ways to the bowl season. Often, it appears as though a different team takes the field. FSU does have national champ calibur talent. Perhaps, they'll find it with an additional amount of practice.

Of course, I've been underestimating the Nittany Lions all year. I've had trouble forgetting the past 5 seasons. I could very well be wrong.

[smb394]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the USC line is largely driven by the public, not to mention no one really knows what'll happen with their defense.

The PSU line I think is low, but I'm biased and staying out of this one.

The UGA/WVU line: I haven't watched WVU enough to comment.

ND/OSU: It did open at -5.5. I'm hoping public $ brings it down further so I can grab OSU.

[DougOzzzz]

Have you had much success betting on lines that are far off from the predictor?

Just curious.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you had much success betting on lines that are far off from the predictor?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I haven't even been studying sports betting for more than a year or so. But I have been watching predictor for a while, especially in college basketball, where I use it for NCAA pools and contests and such.

I also used it to predict football games for contests, and impress my friends when I picked an "upset" that really wasn't an upset at all according to Sagarin.

Then when I actually discovered betting lines, I was shocked at how well they generally matched up. Three of these games are off by 5.5 or more, and that's extremely unusual.

In fact, I don't remember ever seeing ANY lines as far off as 6.5, except for in cases where injuries were obviously a major factor. That's what freaks me out so much here.