Another interesting hand from the game's "smartest player"

[Gigabet]

I can justify this play with logic, as well as give you a legitamate line of reasonign that he used when he made this play. However, I don't have time right now. It will take a bit to type it up, and I am in about 10 thousand games. I will post the reasoning in a few hours.

Aside from the shaky play, I have played thousands of hands with Bill, and I also believe he is one of the games greatest thinkers.

[applejuicekid]

LOL...why did this hand make me think of gigabet? I have the feeling I'm not going to understand the explanation, but am eagerly anticipating it regardless.

[Big Limpin']

i can only presume wchen has decided people view him as "smart", so he chose to make a image-"dumb" play?[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Seriously though:

Take this in context, as i play for like 1/20th of these stakes...but you ask if anyone can argue that call is "at least close"...well, isn't it?

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] What we call "races" are usually closer to 55/45, favor the PP
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] The t100 BB he posted also must matter to some degree.

With the merits of these factors, i can see call being reasonable, especially if he had a very good line on the pusher (something like...he wouldnt push with JJ/QQ/KK/AA, and he wouldnt even play 22/33/44/55/66/77), so perhaps you know that the hand range for the push is only a pp 5-10% of the time.

*IF* this were the case, that you knew it was unlikely the push came from a PP..then an arguement could be made that this was even a +EV call. It would almost certainly be +chipEV, and perhaps the "image" value would allow even marginally -$EV calls to be the right move.

BL'

oh, and Mr. Chen is closing the action.

EDIT: Also, never forget outside influences. Maybe he had to piss really bad? Or his car was being broken into? Or house on fire? (im semi-serious here too). If im in the last remaining game of my last quad of the night, im often willing to take a little more risk, just so i can double up or bail.

[Gramps]

Yikes, I can see how it gives you a stealing edge of sorts, and the relative position of the stacks is such that there's value in getting to 2k and having a shot at opening up an additional gap on the other stacks. And, I can see the value of making a borderline call, that will make people think twice about pushing on you.

But...c'mon, you're like 40% at best to win that hand vs. the pusher's range (unless there's something about the pusher that I don't know). It's not worth it to make that call with 22. Especially given that a fair % of the time you'll be able to make it into the top-4 (vs. top-3 payout structure) without having to win an all-in, taking an unneccessary crappy confrontation at this point just blows all the way around IMO.

Not saying there couldn't be some very solid, logical thinking behind it, just that (IMO, IME) it's misapplied here. I'm taking off for the next 24 hours, but I'll be very interested to see the (correctly applied to the variables present) logic behind this one.

And FWIW, I've read the dude's sutff in the Conjelco letter, I do think he's very smart. My point is more about taking into proper account all the proper tournament/SNG variables that actually exist when making plays vs. one's ability to do high level analysis given a fixed set of established variables.

[applejuicekid]

[ QUOTE ]
but you ask if anyone can argue that call is "at least close"...well, isn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think so. Not only is this a poor call according to ICM, but in terms of chipEV as well. 22 is most likely behind the pushers range.

[ QUOTE ]
What we call "races" are usually closer to 55/45, favor the PP

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when the PP is 22. The best it can be over two overcards is 52/48 and can even be behind two unsuited overcards.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2c 2d 839324 49.02 843273 49.25 29707 1.73 0.499
8s Th 843273 49.25 839324 49.02 29707 1.73 0.501



[ QUOTE ]
With the merits of these factors, i can see call being reasonable, especially if he had a very good line on the pusher (something like...he wouldnt push with JJ/QQ/KK/AA, and he wouldnt even play 22/33/44/55/66/77), so perhaps you know that the hand range for the push is only a pp 5-10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a stretch. That would be a very weird range, and an amazing read to be able to narrow his range down that much.

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Also, never forget outside influences. Maybe he had to piss really bad? Or his car was being broken into? Or house on fire? (im semi-serious here too). If im in the last remaining game of my last quad of the night, im often willing to take a little more risk, just so i can double up or bail.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a little bit more sense. It seems from reading your post that you don't agree with his call, but are trying to think up some logical explanations. I applaud your efforts since you did way better than I could have, but I disagree with most of your points and will have a tough time believing that this is a close not to mention good call.

[Big Limpin']

yeah man, you are bang on about me not truely liking/understanding, but attemting to justify (as was Gramps request)

with respect to [ QUOTE ]
This is a stretch. That would be a very weird range,

[/ QUOTE ]for sure it is a little ambitious, but i think its plausable ,(for reads on the right player) to eliminate some PPs based on what you know about how they would play them. My stated hands were pulled from my ass, but would it be reasonable to eliminate *some* of the highest and lowest (or maybe just the lowest)?

Oh, and about me saying its better than a race, yeah you're right, i brain froze a little there, seeing as its 22, which is the most likely to be counterfeitted by a double paired board. Still, it ought to fare better against AK than 8To, no?

So, call it a 50/50 on a pot laying 11:9 if push is indeed not a PP. But certainly, as much as you discount likelyhood of overpair, its a risk still of significant proportions.

BL'

[applejuicekid]

I thought about it a bit more, and think you may have a good point about the range. And yes 22 does fare better against AK than T8, but it isn't one of those pairs where you will be 56/44 or something.

I think this play has value at the highest buyins. When all the other players are very aware of one another's games there could be a definite advantage in a call here. Not only does the pot offer odds for a coinflip or near-coinflip, but it also announces to the rest of the table that the caller has a looser range of calling hands than they would normally assume.

If the caller doubles up he will be less likely to have his blinds pushed over. Given these circumstances, the caller has two choices and three outcomes:

1) fold - gain nothing
2a) call - lose
2b) call - double up and gain blinds later from narrower opponent pushing ranges

Under this reasoning a call is clearly +EV.

But what do I know? I push bot the 22s and fold pocket deuces here every time because I can just steal blinds later from my too-tight opponents.

[Exitonly]

Don't think theres much defending this..

I'm going to say, he had to run out to make an appointment, and this call is less -EV than blinding out.

edit: well there is defending this, 1.3:1 isn't sooo bad. But without doing more math, i don't think this is the best play.

[stupidsucker]

In many ways this post alone is evidence that the play was an excellent long term play.

I am just sticking my nose in where it doesnt belong , [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but he obviously has some people scratchign their head.