Are we screwed? - oil/wheat/water shortages

[mr_whomp]

I dont really think the problem is high prices. Really even if oil is expensive and everything begins to cost more its not like the world is getting shat on. The real problem will be in 40-50 years when the oil is dried up, or not extracting quickly enough to meet all demand and then governments are going to have to ration it out. I could see this starting a lot of wars. And i think the US took a good first step by taking control of the Iraq oil fields.

[Dr. Strangelove]

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I dont really think the problem is high prices. Really even if oil is expensive and everything begins to cost more its not like the world is getting shat on. The real problem will be in 40-50 years when the oil is dried up, or not extracting quickly enough to meet all demand and then governments are going to have to ration it out. I could see this starting a lot of wars. And i think the US took a good first step by taking control of the Iraq oil fields.

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You aren't too bright.

[mr_whomp]

Read the first post in the thread. If you buy what those websites say then it looks like humanity has f-ed itself and its too late for us to fix it. In that case what I said above about high oil prices not being a problem as long as there is enough oil o supply all potential buyers holds true. AND the US having control over Iraqi oil is good as well since it ensures that oil is coming West and not East to China.

[Il_Mostro]

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The real problem will be in 40-50 years when the oil is dried up

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The problem is not running out of oil, the problem is to adapt to a world where we produce less and less oil every year. You cannot produce at full speed until all is gone, at some point there is a peak, after which there will be less and less oil. Meaning higher and higher prices.

And if we are a bit unlucky, the peak in produciton is now, as we speak.

[mr_whomp]

Right, but i believe the articles say that the amount of oil being produced is going to decrease by 1-3% per year, which because of compounding will create quite a problem. But lets say that through energy saving initiatives the western world reduces they oil use to 1990 levels or even just stops usage from increasing, and we cut off the eastern world, that would buy us an extra couple of decades. Which would give us the time needed to bring alternatives online.

I also thing hydrogen is BS, and wont be useful as a widespread system since we would have to build an entirely new infrastructure. I think it's much more likely we will go with electric since the infrastructure is already in place.

[Il_Mostro]

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oil being produced is going to decrease by 1-3% per year

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This is the optimistic assumption. The pessimistic is more like 5-6%, meaning a halfing in a mere 15 years. What might give such large depletion rates is advanced recovery systems, which for example Matthew Simmons is arguing only makes it possible to produce the same amount of oil faster, meaning that when the peak arrives the shortfall will not be 1%, but more like 15% which we have seen in some areas.

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But lets say that through energy saving initiatives the western world reduces they oil use to 1990 levels or even just stops usage from increasing

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First of all, not that I'm not a "doomer". I do not belive we will se the fall of western civlization in the coming decades, but I do belive we will face a depression that might drag on for a few decades, forcing us back into a sustainable economy. And I belive that transformation will be very hard on many people, especially those who belive the current way of life is some sort of god-given right. "The American way of life is not negotiable" and bs like that.

So, what would such measurements affect the economy? An economy where there is a huge housingbubble in some areas, there are lots of people streched thin to manage morgages and what-not.

So basically Il_Mostro to sum that up, yeah were screwed.

[Borodog]

It reminds me of the global tragedy that befell mankind when we ran out of stones at the end of the Stone Age, and bronze at the rnd of the Bronze Age, and iron at the end of the Iron Age . . .

Oh, wait. Nevermind.