should i get her to cheat?

[chabibi]

ive been hanging out with this girl at my school who i find very sexy. the problem is she has a boyfriend. now in order to attempt tapping that i have to analyze the situation. the lady in question's boyfriend lives out of the country (as she is an international student). if i make a move i will either score or get rejected. neither result bothers me much, however if i get rejected i have to face the fact that i will have to sever contact with her, and the chances of hooking up with one of her close friends/roommates is greatly reduced (after reading intelectualwhores.com i would rate her much higher on the ladder than her friends but would [censored] them in a heart beat) after much personal research and the realization that most women are sluts I have estimated that 65% of women are willing to cheat on theyre boyfriend if he lives out of the country or are on vacation. That would make me a 2:1 favourite to get laid by her, however I estimate that if there was no boyfriend I would have at the very least an 85% chance of screwing her so if I attempt there is a P(0.65*0.85) = P(0.552) 55.25% chance that I will succeed,that's slightly better than 1:1 which I consider pretty good odds for such a hot girl. Now if I don't attempt there is a pretty good chance that I will be able to hook up with 1 or more of her close friends (although probably not simultaneously) I say somewhere in the area of a 75% chance 3:1 favourite to get laid but by less quality chicks. If I do make a move and do not succeed my chances of scooping a friend are reduced to probably a 10% chance ( I already have the ins with this group of girls so it's a good place for pussy). At this point I compared my two options
1. go for the girl
2. go right to a friend
P1 = P(0.5 + 0.5*0.1) = P(0.55)
P2 = (0.75)
So with option 1 I am slightly better than 1:1 to get laid but higher quality
Option two I am a 3:1 favourite to get laid

But scoring with this girl could have some drawbacks. Her boyfriend will be visiting in a month and that is a potential headache that I don't need. Then there is the whole morality issue of actively perusing a girl who is in a relationship (although to be honest im not a very moral person anyway)

My question is what is the winning move given this situation what is higher EV

Footnote:
i am analyzing this all in the spirit of gambling and making correct decisions. All the numbers and percentages were made up by me some even with a bit of my own research. They are mostly based on gut instincts like deciding if a bluff is profitable. There is no real formula and if you think this is all ridiculous [censored] you its 3 am and im tired

[eric5148]

This would be an excellent post for the quarter life crisis forums.

[[censored]]

I would start by using paragraphs. Seriously.

I would try and hit the friend first

[daveymck]

You missed out a key part in your analysis.

How big is the boyfriend, how likely he will find out and how likely he will beat you up.

[jdl22]

davey's right you gotta take reverse implied odds into account.

[daveymck]

Noone like bad beat stories but this is one flop where knowing the likely river card is key to your flop decisions.

[Shajen]

If you are good, you'd go for one of the friends first. Women talk. A lot.

'nough said.

[Hack]

If you do attempt it, there is a 100% chance that you will go to hell.

That's pretty -EV.

By the way, you're an [censored] for even considering this.

[jakethebake]

I disagree. She's not married. She has a long distance relationship with some guy he doesn't know. It's her decision. Why would he go to hell?

[jakethebake]

Oh yea. And I guarantee the bf is getting some overseas.