Commerce Hand - I am temporarily results oriented

[lapoker17]

OK - This hand isn't that interesting - But it pissed me off, and made me think.

I guess my question is this: Is it ever correct to just call a flop bet when you know someone is on a flush draw and will probably commit a good potion of their chips on the turn even when their card doesn't hit? I know this is a math problem, but I’m too lazy to do it right now – One of you geniuses can probably do it in 2 seconds….

Here's the hand. 10/20 Commerce.

I'm in the SB ($1300) w 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

5 limpers to me - I complete, BB knocks.

Flop is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check - I will often lead with sets here, but the table's been playing very aggressive, and I'm nearly certain I will get another chance to act in this hand. Aggressive, OK player in BB ($5500) leads for $60. Folded around to LP ($1300) - Crazy Asian guy who always overplays draws and is generally not very good - Although he can be kind of dangerous.

He makes it $300 and it's folded around to me.

So here's the decision: I know he has hearts - I guess his biggest draw would be something like 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (where I’m still 60-40% ahead), but he probably just has some standard flush draw instead of flush + straight or pair + flush. I know I have the best hand.

Anyway, I am fairly confident that if I call (or make a smaller reraise) and lead a non-heart turn (for say somewhere between $700 and all my chips), I still have a chance of getting most of his remaining stack and have the added benefit that if the turn brings a heart, I will not put another cent in, unless he makes it very cheap for me to try to pair the board on the river.

So, I wind up pushing, as I don’t mind picking up the $500 in dead money if he unpredictably folds and if he calls, I’m giving him bad odds. BB folds and LP calls. He hits his heart on the turn and busts me.

So, was my thinking about just calling his flop bet or making a smaller raise very weak, or given the circumstances and read, does it have some merit?

I have a feeling this is a dumb question, but thanks for humoring me…

[Asovereights]

This all depends on your read of the player. There are two reasons to raise his bet here:
1) You have the better hand, and if you make this play 100 times, you will win more times than not. So why not get more of his money in the pot.
2) You want the flush draw to fold and you don't want to risk losing.

On the second point it seems that this player may have called any raise at this time, so you most likely would not have gotten him out of the hand. Some players will ride a flush draw no matter what.

So that leaves the first point. You had the better hand. The question is do you want to risk your money on a 65% chance of winning, or do you want to wait for a better spot?

[gomberg]

generally, if you are right on your read and can get away from the hand w/out odds to hit a set on the river if a heart comes on the turn, it is better to give up a small edge for a much larger one on the turn. Don't feel like doing the math to prove it right now...

[lapoker17]

But what about the math? If he will go the distance with his flush draw every time - even on a non-heart turn - then isn't there math to argue for just calling or minraising the flop.

Let's say 90% of the time he will call a non-heart turn bet for 70% of his remaining stack, and I will save half my stack everytime a heart does come on the turn. Might it not be the better play to not commit all of my chips here?

[Asovereights]

Let's say you make it $1,300 and he calls every time with that raise. He has 18 outs, which gives him a 40% chance of hitting his flush. Assuming that only the flush takes you down. This means if you were to play this hand 10X's, you would be up $2,600 on average against this players flush draw.

So if you can afford to take the chance, then yes, you should raise all in if you think he will call.

[ML4L]

Hey la,

[ QUOTE ]
Is it ever correct to just call a flop bet when you know someone is on a flush draw and will probably commit a good potion of their chips on the turn even when their card doesn't hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Change "ever" to "usually" and the answer is yes.

ML4L

[lapoker17]

Thank you sir - I felt results orientation seeping into my brain, but thought this play had mathmatical merit - Thank you for confirming.

[gomberg]

ok - here's some dumb math...

Lets assume pot is $200 and you both have $1300 left. He now raises to $300.

other assumptions:
1. will call all-in on flop
2. will call all-in on turn no matter what card hits (even if board pairs) - or you can somehow get his money in
3. you will fold the turn if a non-pairing heart comes

Situation A) You reraise all-in on the flop and he calls with just a flush draw. You are roughly 75% to win with a set versus a flush draw.

EV = .75 (+$1500) + .25 (-$1300) = +$800
not a bad edge IMO

Situation B) You call the $300 with the plan of getting the rest of his money in on the turn if no non-pairing heart falls.

EV = (17.7% non-pairing heart comes) (-$300) + (15.5% board pairs) (+$1500) + (66.6% blank comes) (EV2)

EV2 = (15.9% non-pairing heart comes) (-$1300) + (84.1% blank or board pairs) (+$1500) = +$1055

substituting back into EV, the EV of this play given assumptions is -$53 + $232.5 + (.667)(+$1055) = +$882.8

So if the assumptions hold, then waiting till the turn is a little better. I may have some math mistakes here...

[GFunk911]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you make it $1,300 and he calls every time with that raise. He has 18 outs, which gives him a 40% chance of hitting his flush. Assuming that only the flush takes you down. This means if you were to play this hand 10X's, you would be up $2,600 on average against this players flush draw.

So if you can afford to take the chance, then yes, you should raise all in if you think he will call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this kind of thinking all the time, and I just don't get it. LA obviously has a positive expectation for this hand, that's not the question. The question is, which is more profitable, popping the flop and or waiting till the turn? The fact that the flop-pop is hugely profitable does not answer the question

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
But what about the math? If he will go the distance with his flush draw every time - even on a non-heart turn - then isn't there math to argue for just calling or minraising the flop.

Let's say 90% of the time he will call a non-heart turn bet for 70% of his remaining stack, and I will save half my stack everytime a heart does come on the turn. Might it not be the better play to not commit all of my chips here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you know for sure that he is on a flush draw, and will committ his stack either on the turn or the flop then it is always better to wait for the turn do you see why?

he is making a much bigger mistake if he calls for the flush draw on the turn, and if the flush comes on the turn you can reevaluate your situation, ie do you have odds for the boat.

the problem is poker is a game of incomplete information, so it is very difficult to assign any degree of reliablity to those very important variables.

most good players won't committ a large portion of their stack on a draw with only one card to come.

however if you ever find that rare specimen that will call off a large % of his stack on either the flop or turn, then you should always wait for the turn to push it in.

for those of you who wish to argue, i simply defer to the fundemental theorm of poker.