$22, ITM, AK, giant stack conundrum

[brimstone1]

$22, ITM, AK.

I've been fending off Deb_won's very weak "big stack" moves. I just did so again by pushing into him when he completed in the previous hand.

Basically, he's been loose and weak. Several hands that took place earlier have made him fold his SB to me many times +level 4, so I also sorta feel I have FE here.

Level:5 Blinds(75/150)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 8: Deb_won ( $5715 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $1690 )
Seat 6: mousahelo3 ( $595 )
Blinds(75/150)
Dealt to HERO [ Ac Kd ]
Deb_won raises [300].
HERO...?

I'll post what I did, and my thinking behind it after some replies.

Before someone says it, obviously this would've been a much easier answer had the short stack been UTG, with less than 1BB left. But unfortunately, this was a quick game and we've been ITM since 25/50.

(I've also highlighted the reason this hand might be interesting, only for those who have recently joined our 2+2/STT community.)

[tigerite]

If you consider him to be weak-tight, even if he folds this 50% of the time he needs to be min-raising the top 27% of hands to push this.

Not too likely.

[brimstone1]

[ QUOTE ]
If you consider him to be weak-tight, even if he folds this 50% of the time he needs to be min-raising the top 27% of hands to push this.

Not too likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

So its not even close? Pooosh^2?

[tigerite]

No, I mean this is probably a fold given your read on him. Unless he folds more than 50% of the time, his range will be too tight compared to how much he calls.

I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, yes. But in this case we actually have a read, and I've done the calculations (which I can show if you really want) to prove even with a 50% fold, his minraise must mean 22+,A2+,K9+,K6s+,QTs+,JTs. (i.e. he calls with top 50% of that) For this player I think this is too loose a range, and I can't see him folding more than 50%, even given his passive nature.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, would you call if he had pushed?

[Sabrazack]

This is not the bubble. I definately push this since you are saying he was loose. You already have third secure, push it and get his chips.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not the bubble. I definately push this since you are saying he was loose. You already have third secure, push it and get his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a classic mistake people make. ITM is a mini bubble of its own with payouts of 0.75/0.25/0

[brimstone1]

Wait.

I don't consider him to be weak-tight.

He's worse than that. He's weak-loose.

He'll play a tremendous amount of hands, and play them very passively.

Specifically here, I was putting him on:
66+, K9o+/KTs+, A2o+, JTs/JQo.

The reason I hesitated was because of the short stack, but as soon as I realized the shorty wasn't in any imminent danger (<1BB, so forth), I knew I had to take the +chipEV, and that it probably wasn't going to be one of those situations where its +chipEV but -$EV.

If I double up here, I'm ~3300, he's ~4000, and we have a tiny stack to push around between us.

But if I folded, the possibility of shorty doubling up from the loose giant stack and becoming an actual threat to me was real. If he did double up, he'd be 1200ish vs. my 1500 -- I'd probably have to drop the lower end of my shorty calling range, giving him tremendous FE.

And then typing all of this... I think of how people find the $22s to be ridiculously easy, and beat them 16 tabling on their lunch break. sigh. So on a side note, am I giving way too much thought into this level?