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#1
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Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
So here is the setup. Was just in the PS $5.50 Turbo rebuy for the WSOP $160 Double Shootout.
Top 17 make it, next 4 get small payouts. 22 Left in tourney, running Hand for Hand I am the absolute Big Stack in the tourney at this point. No question I can fold my way in. Blinds are 4K-8K, about to go up to 8K-12K. I have close to 90K. There are many short stacks. Folded to me in the SB. Hero has 23os. BB to my left is a short stack. He has 5K after posting. If he folds, and the blinds go up, he will be all-in next hand. I am not looking to help him (or hurt myself). Do I push with 23os? and likely feed him chips? or do I fold and definetely feed him chips - folding gets his stack to about 19k before posting the next hand's SB. If I fold the guy makes it. I make it either way. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) converter CO (t11340) Button (t32325) Hero (t88240) BB (t13520) UTG (t29245) MP1 (t33290) MP2 (t8941) Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> So what do you do? |
#2
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
fold, you said yourself you get in either way.
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#3
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way. [/ QUOTE ] You may have a big stack, but I think you have zero fold equity with someone in desperation mode. If BB knows that blinds are going up next hand, he will blinded out as SB anyways. He might as well make his stand now and hope to double up to survive another orbit. |
#4
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
[ QUOTE ]
fold, you said yourself you get in either way. [/ QUOTE ] If he gets in either way, what's the rationale for preferring a fold over a push? If we want to analyze this theoretically, first let's acknowledge that it isn't really a 100% chance of winning the seat by folding, it's closer to 99.999%. If we push with our 3-2, does this probability increase to 99.9991%, or does it decrease to 99.9989%? I don't know the answer, and for practical purposes it doesn't really matter; just do whatever you feel like. |
#5
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
I think MBE hit this one. If it doesn't make a difference, then it doesn't make a difference.
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#6
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
Build a time machine, go back in time 5 minutes before this hand, put yourself on 'post and fold', grab a beer and fix yourself a sandwich.
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#7
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
Does your answer change if I have AA, or at this point should I just not interfere, and let the small stacks fight it out?
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#8
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
If you had built the time machine, you would have altered the space time continuum and the hands you got would be different, so, no.
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#9
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win.
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#10
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Re: Satellite Bubble - No Brainer, Obnoxious, or Stupid
[ QUOTE ]
well of course if you have AA's that is different and you you have a chance to actually eliminate a player without risking a big part of your stack with a hand that is a huge favorite to win. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is wrong too. AA is still a fold, because of the crap everyone else is playing. Nothing to gain everything to lose if you are sure you can fold into a seat. This is a situation where it is now correct to stall on every decision. And like Augie said it really isn't close. |
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