Rolled up so I fold fourth

[MRBAA]

Had the pleasure of playing live at Foxwoods for a few hours Saturday -- something I get to do about a half-dozen times a year. Live play at a good casino with a big poker room is the nuts. Anyway, I played about 3 hours of 4-8 hold'em -- you'd think the games would be getting tougher with all the books, TV etc. But no, these were as good as any game I've been in. The cards were cooperating and I was winning proudly. But I stuck to my game plan, and switched to $5-10 stud for the second 3 hours, The games were just about as fishy as he, but the cards did not cooperate. In 3 hours, I never bet or called a bet on the river, only made it to the river twice, and did not win a single pot. Believe it or not, I still had fun -- the table was sociable, the players were insane (in their strategies) and I mostly just got to watch. Anyway, about half way through I had the following hand:

Loose goose (xx)2s
Hero (88)8 calls
Crazy Lady (xx)J calls
Mr. Clueless (xx) 9 calls
(xx)7 folds
(xx)Q folds
Mr. Tight (xx)K completes
(xx)9 folds

We all call -- I probably should have reraised right here, But I thought I'd wait 'til the big bet street because I knew Mr. Tight almost certainly had kings or a pocket big pair here.

Pot 3BB

4th Street

Loose goose (xx)2s6d

Hero (88)89c

Crazy Lady (xx)J 8

Mr. Clueless (xx) 9 3

Mr. Tight (xx)K K

Mr. Tight double bets it, Loose Goose calls, the other three of us fold.

(btw, LG calls to river and they check it down -- Mr. Tight shows trip kings unimproved and LG takes it with a spade flush)

[bobman0330]

I don't like it at all.

If he has trip kings, your equity in the three-handed pot is about 28%. If he had a big pair, e.g., (AA)KK, your three-way equity is 67%.

The probability of him having a king instead of either AA or QQ down is about 4:1 in favor of the king. Average pot equity is about 39%, unless I'm doing my math wrong. You need to call at least until the big bet streets and see what happens.

In my mind, the key to this hand is the 3rd player, who is essentially free money for you if the villain has three kings. You need to fill to win anyways, and the third player cannot beat a boat.

[MRBAA]

Notice that both my case 8 and my 9 side card are dead on fourth. And remember, I'm getting 5-1 iimmediate odds, but will have to call two more bets to see the river (and it's going to be a big pot to fold on the river with trips if I don't improve).

[beta1607]

I think you have to call 4th, and I probably raise 5th and then begin to reevaluate. You are giving your opponent way too much credit here since he plays it the same with any big pair in the hole.

[MRBAA]

it's interesting, because online I'd almost certainly have called. Playing live, it was quite obvious that he loved his hand. Now, he could have had (AA)KK or even (QQ)KK, although one Q died on fourth. But he was just swaggering, radiating power here. And he was not a player who would be inclined to overvalue his hand. And I just hated how the hand would play out -- with me just calling down and possibly even filling and losing, and my case 8 and side card both dead.

There is about 5BB in the pot, but if I call fourth I will almost surely see the river (unless he catches another K). So my real pot odds, assuming loose goose will call all the way, are roughly 3-1 to get to the river. I can probably value bet if checked to on the river, but I can't raise if he bets. And with about 13bb in the pot if he bets into me on the river, I'm probably calling that bet too even if I don't improve. I actually think I should have just bet my damn hand and opened for a completion.

[CJC]

Hello,

Where was my phone call?? I didn't hear from you so I didn't go ( and I was debating all day )

kk, now on to the hand.. I have made a few folds like this once or twice in my life ( and posted them too I believe )

Given the description of the player I am ok with the fold, but you had better be damned sure of the player....damned sure..

CJ

[MRBAA]

Hey CJ, sorry I didn't call. I literally decided to play (or rather my wife decided I could play) when I was an hour from the casino. Of course, I had forgotten to bring your cell # amidst all the crazy plans for the weekend. I will be taking a foxwoods Friday in late July/early August and we will meet then. It's weird, because when you analyze the hand coldly, the fold looks very questionable. There's no way I could be sure he had kings vs. pocket AA. Yet at the time, I was "sure" he did, my cards were dead and it seemed like a relatively obvious fold.