When do you make your picks?

[jedi]

Noob question here. When do you make your picks during the week? Do you do it early in the week before the line starts moving, or do you wait until the public has weighed in and injury reports are more up to date?

[NoChance]

Just like with poker, it depends. It depends on how I feel the line may move and which side I am on. Sometimes I feel like I need to grab it ASAP and other times I feel like I can wait for a better one. Of course, just like poker, I am not always correct on which way the line moves.

[Webster]

The adage is play dogs late and favs early. It also depends on the line. If a line is +5.5 you are in no hurry because going to +5 is no big deal while getting +6 is GREAT.

The problem comes with a +3. You REALLY hate to lose +3 to +2.5 but it's REALLY nice to get +3.5 . . .although +3 rarly moves because it IS so important.

Look at the Packers at +7.5. Most people are betting the +7.5 and IF you want that game it would be VERY wise to get +7.5 because if ig goes to +7 you lose a LOT but going to +8 (it won't) is not that big of deal.

[Slacker13]

Most all plays i make are jsut before kickoff. I watch and wait for those last minute line moves, i will place a few bets early in the day but 98% of any of my plays are on the day of the game and not early in the week. That is why I can do shitty in a pool and do well betting myself, I hate putting plays in early and rarely do my studying until thurs or fri.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Most all plays i make are jsut before kickoff. I watch and wait for those last minute line moves, i will place a few bets early in the day but 98% of any of my plays are on the day of the game and not early in the week. That is why I can do shitty in a pool and do well betting myself, I hate putting plays in early and rarely do my studying until thurs or fri.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now why is that? Aren't you afraid that the line will move unfavorably for you in the final day? Or are you convinced that it's "public" movement and you'd do better betting against that move?

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
Now why is that? Aren't you afraid that the line will move unfavorably for you in the final day? Or are you convinced that it's "public" movement and you'd do better betting against that move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been watching Don Best for 9-10 years and you really start to get a feel for moves. The line moves that happen in the last few minutes before kickoff are the "wiseguys", it's not the general public moving the line. Thats why i use a combination of local and offshore books, some of my local guys set their lines on Wed and don't move them, also I can late call my action to a few of them. I know an argument can and has been made that the real sharp bettors bet when the line opens, which is true but there are many sharp bettors that bet right at kickoff. From what I understand and have been going on for years is that when 5 or more casinos get hit with 100k or more on a single game that is when you get the major line move, it's the sharpies laying down major action at multiple casinos, thats who i like to jump on with.

I also play alot of middles. I said in a post last season that is why it is so important to have multiple books and a combo of offshore and locals. It's damn easy to bet middles when a guy doesn't move his line all week.

When I do bet games that I like, and maybe i liked this game all week long, I will still wait to just before kickoff because if the line moves against what i like then i won't bet it, it the line moves the way i like then i may put more on it. If the line stays the same then i will shop the line between my sportsbook and local BM.