15-30 Hand: Turn and River Play

[GooperMC]

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Its very likely that if you placed all the hands faceup, you would have the highest pot equity

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You don't have to have the highest pot equity, you just have to have enough PE to make the call +EV. If he checked the turn when the action got back to him he would have 6.5:1 on his money which is enough to make calling profitable with just the nut low draw.

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Being afraid of a raise is not a reason not to bet here. That would only cost you a fraction of a bet.


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I am confused, how can the raise only cost you a fraction of a bet yet a check call is -EV?

[pipes]

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Its very likely that if you placed all the hands faceup, you would have the highest pot equity

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You don't have to have the highest pot equity, you just have to have enough PE to make the call +EV. If he checked the turn when the action got back to him he would have 6.5:1 on his money which is enough to make calling profitable with just the nut low draw.

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Being afraid of a raise is not a reason not to bet here. That would only cost you a fraction of a bet.


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I am confused, how can the raise only cost you a fraction of a bet yet a check call is -EV?

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Check call is positive EV. But betting out probably has a higher EV IMO, so you would choose that.

[GooperMC]

From what you said earlier:

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You don't have to have the highest pot equity

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If that is the case it is very unlikey that you have the odds to initiate fresh money in the pot. If that is the case how can betting be more +EV then checking?

[anatta]

Jeffage, you didn't flop the nut-nut with two nut redraws and counterfeit protection so you must fold unless the pot has 50 bb in which case you can check, and call one bet on the flop but only if you have the discipline to check-fold the turn if you don't improve. While I would never find myself in your postion, if I did somehow make it to the river, since you are first to act out of position, you should just fold, checking here is too aggressive.

[pipes]

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From what you said earlier:

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You don't have to have the highest pot equity

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If that is the case it is very unlikey that you have the odds to initiate fresh money in the pot. If that is the case how can betting be more +EV then checking?

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You have the uncounterfeitable nut low draw as well as possibly the best high hand.

If you have the best high hand a bet will help protect it.

By checking a bet will probably only be put in the pot when you do not have the best high hand. Checking a giving a free card to a player that would have folded is a very bad result.

Its O8b, but its still poker and fundamentals of good poker still apply.

[Buzz]

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Its very likely that if you placed all the hands faceup, you would have the highest pot equity.

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Pipes - I don't think so.

Impossible to do, of course, since we don't know exactly what the hands are.

But I did lay out the known cards, face up, and considered the possibility of scooping or getting a fraction as I went through each of the various cards in the deck before I posted my second post in this thread, the one that has the pot equity information (although I didn't call it that).

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Read or reread Theory of Poker for this type of discussion.

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Thanks for the referral. Been a while since I re-read that book. It's a good one, one of my favorites. Probably not a bad idea for me to go through it again.

I'll put that on my list of things to do.

Buzz

[J_V]

LOL.

Yes, the advice on this forum is laughably weak tight. The turn looks like a check/call but it's very possible betting is right. The river is a call.

[J_V]

I think the river is a call.

The turn is very close.

[Jeffage]

Good discussion. For all who are curious...I called the river bet. My opponent had a queen so I lost (it was something like A4Qx). Good discussion, but I STILL don't know what the correct move on the turn is...seems like a pretty routine situation (you have a nut low draw and a high hand which may be good, but probably isn't out of position against one or two callers) but posters can't agree what the right move is. Interesting. Is it because there are two philosophies on how to play this game (one more tight passive and another more risky and aggressive) that both work, or is someone right and someone wrong? Thanks for the discussion though...good food for thought and more replies welcome.

Jeff

[pipes]

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Good discussion. For all who are curious...I called the river bet. My opponent had a queen so I lost (it was something like A4Qx). Good discussion, but I STILL don't know what the correct move on the turn is...seems like a pretty routine situation (you have a nut low draw and a high hand which may be good, but probably isn't out of position against one or two callers) but posters can't agree what the right move is. Interesting. Is it because there are two philosophies on how to play this game (one more tight passive and another more risky and aggressive) that both work, or is someone right and someone wrong? Thanks for the discussion though...good food for thought and more replies welcome.

Jeff

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Jeff, I'm one of the ones that advocate betting out. Since you are definitely calling if you check I'm really struggling to see why some think a turn bet is wrong here. Its very possible your high hand is good in a shorthanded pot.

The player you played against made a very aggressive move against you and just got lucky. I think it was ill advised because of the two low cards on board; but that's poker.

But he is holding exactly the type of hand that you want to bet out against and hopefully get to fold on the Turn. What if he would have folded and it checked around on the Turn. Trying to save a fraction of a bet cost you the pot.