A question for Steve Hudak

[Ezcheeze]

Giving him AA, KK, 55, 7x only 20% of the time, a hand I'll be way ahead of 5% of the time, and a pair QQ or lower besides 55 or 77 75% of the time my EV would come out to about +15300 on the call. This is a pretty small gain compared to what I'm riskig by putting the chips in. I'm not sure if this would be worth putting the chips in for, I'd have to do some more calculations.

At the table during the hand I put the chance at him having one of the hands that had me in bad shape much higher than in this calculation. This was based on alot of factors you had to be at the table to see and I know you disagree with my guesstimates.

[AJo Go All In]

fair enough, i mean 20% seems wildly pessimistic to me, i would have put it at more like 5%.

[Ezcheeze]

Let's try to guess at what his preflop calling range is. He's probably going to fold any hand except a pair or AK. I'm not sure how likely he is to reraise all in preflop with a big pair or AK. To simplify things lets say he always reraises all in with AK and calls with every pair (just hypothetical). Then on the flop when he checks theres 6 each of QQ-22 excluding 77 and 55. Thats 6 each of 9 hands. Theres 1 77 and 3 55 hands. Theres 3 each of AA and KK. This would put him at 18.5% to have me in really bad shape.

Clearly, this number isn't accurate as some of the time hell reraise me preflop with AA or KK. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slowplay those hands (espcially AA) preflop though as doing so would make it almost impossible for me to get away from after betting the flop whereas I might be able to get away from a huge preflop reraise.

It's not accurate at all but I thought you'd be interested to see how high the percentage is in this simplified model.

[AJo Go All In]

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Thats 6 each of 9 hands. Theres 1 77 and 3 55 hands. Theres 3 each of AA and KK. This would put him at 18.5% to have me in really bad shape.

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well yeah you made an error here it's 10 out of 64 hands not 10 out of 54 so even in your model it's only 15.625%

also again you know the player better than i do but i would think the majority of the time he is reraising you with AA and KK before the flop.

if you really think he is not capable of being in there with something like 87s then i'm even more inclined to call as that was my biggest concern.

[Ezcheeze]

Oops yea my mistake. No I don't think he's calling preflop with hands like 87s.
I don't see why it would make you more likely to call though if he doesn't have 87s as if he did you'd also have to include the other suited-connected type hands in his range and the vast majority of those make only a str8 draw on the flop or completely miss.
We pretty much agree on how to do figure out the EV in this case, it just comes down to our specific reads to adjust the numbers.