Hating my Jacks

Spicymoose · #1 11-20-2005, 02:20 PM

UTG is 20/4/2 after 150 hands. CO is 50/11/.3 after 40. I woulda folded the turn if it weren't for my weak flush draw.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Hero folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

fizzleboink · #2 11-20-2005, 02:33 PM

With a PFR of 4, after he caps, I think you're up against QQ, KK, AA almost always.

Because of that, I would try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. However you also need to protect your hand because of the CO. That makes it a tough decision.

I definitely would not have 3-bet the flop. The turn call is probably borderline ok.

I think this would have made a good play-along.

Spicymoose · #3 11-20-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With a PFR of 4, after he caps, I think you're up against QQ, KK, AA almost always.

I definitely would not have 3-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

After he caps the flop, I agree he almost always has those hands, but you don't think he raises the flop with AK often enough? I figure we have layover from CO, so that even if we arn't ahead of UTG all the time, we are ahead of CO enough of the time. Maybe thats me being too much of a LAG though...

On the other hand, even if he might have AK, the times he doesn't, we usually get capped and are pretty far behind.

fizzleboink · #4 11-20-2005, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

After he caps the flop, I agree he almost always has those hands, but you don't think he raises the flop with AK often enough? I figure we have layover from CO, so that even if we arn't ahead of UTG all the time, we are ahead of CO enough of the time. Maybe thats me being too much of a LAG though...

On the other hand, even if he might have AK, the times he doesn't, we usually get capped and are pretty far behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

It has been my experience that people who raise around 4% of their hands pre-flop usually don't cap anything but QQ,KK,AA because AK is a "drawing hand" to them. So I think you should discount the number of combinations of AK that could be capping you.

Also, the CO called 2 cold on the flop. I think he is actually hurting your equity, instead of providing overlay. His action there points to a flush draw, or a 4. Ofcourse he could be playing stupid and drawing to overcards, or some other PP. But here's some number crunching for you:

33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec

Board: 2c 4c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.5781 % 39.58% 00.00% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 60.4219 % 60.42% 00.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

So here we have the best case scenario where he caps AK always. You have 39% equity. Assuming that the CO is drawing completely dead (and thus not on the chart), that gives you a 6% edge to push. However I am pretty sure we can agree that the CO is either drawing quite live or is already ahead.

That is why I don't 3-bet the flop.

fizzleboink · #5 11-20-2005, 03:06 PM

Ok here's an even better chart to illustrate my point.

This is the BEST case scenario:

30,394,980 games 10.312 secs 2,947,534 games/sec

Board: 2c 4c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.8031 % 33.79% 00.02% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 50.6683 % 50.52% 00.14% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 15.5286 % 15.37% 00.16% { random }

You're even money in the best case.

flawless_victory · #6 11-20-2005, 03:17 PM

calling the turn there is a clear mistake.
youre up against KK and the NF here always.

B Dids · #7 11-20-2005, 03:20 PM

I think this is a really easy turn fold. You're v. likely beat in two ways.

Bill Smith · #8 11-20-2005, 03:32 PM

UTG caps preflop when he only raises 4% of the time in the first place. We can identify his hand as AA-QQ, AK. I highly question that he caps the flop with AK, but if he did, he's not betting the turn without a big club.

CO has a .3 postflop aggression and probably falls under the category "loose-passive-obvious." He raises the turn when straight and flush possibilities all hit home.

You're basically hoping on the turn that CO didn't already have an A-Q high flush and one of UTG's big cards is not a club. Easy fold.

I couldn't 3-bet the flop either. Call and hope for a safe turn. Probably call down unless it comes back 2 bets to you.

Catt · #9 11-20-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
calling the turn there is a clear mistake.
youre up against KK and the NF here always.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were my thoughts (though not so specific as KK). I fold the turn without any qualms at all.

#10 11-20-2005, 05:59 PM

Gotta fold this turn.