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#11
11-15-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
And regardless of the results I still disagree with him. I open raise red JJ UTG+1. An LPP cold calls in MP1 and a player with TAGggish 17/9 stats after 100 hands 3-bets from the SB. A LAG BB calls two and I cap. Everyone calls. Flop: (16 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB bets, BB folds, I raise, MP1 folds, SB 3-bets, I call. Turn: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB bets, I raise, SB calls. River: (15 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, I [/ QUOTE ] AK 12 combos AA 6 combos KK 3 combos QQ 3 combos TT 6 combos Now we start discounting: QQ seems less likely because I would expect a turn 3-bet. AA is tough.. because I would also expect a turn 3-bet, although if he is the type to think scary thoughts..I could see him going passive. Kind of the same thing with KK although his going passive would be a little more explainable due to your PF cap. AK seems a little goofy but not altogether out of the picture, except for the fact he would have kind of overplayed it... I can't really see a normal player trying to run a capper off of a Jack high flop. So basically the two finalists are AA and KK. HE seems to have played it a little more like KK. But I am kind of bothered by limiting him to those two hands. As there are some outside possbilites of hands that he may have played in a simaliar fashion. This is where I really whip out the HUD and am looking at things like Flop aggression, turn aggression stuff like that. I will say this I will not bet/fold this hand. Just looking at the board his payoff (besides AA and AK) hands would be KQ, KJ, QJ (which he also probably would have three-bet the turn), maybe AQ. Thing is of those hands only KJs makes any sense the whole way through and also is not very likely considering your holding. The thing is that if you take only the AA or AK combos and discount them heavily based upon his play. You still have about a 50/50 shot. Factoring in the possbility of a weekly played QQ (which he may now not checkraise) and the kind of unlikely suited hands he might have raised PF (KQs...etc). I think you have a very thin and unenjoyable Bet/call. Interesting hand.. will give something to work on tonight. BTW, I like steam rolling these hands... If he has AA or KK he may not slowdown on the turn anyway (If you cap the flop) so you get to cap and are more likely to get your 2-bets on the turn. 
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#13
11-15-2005, 02:41 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
KQ, KJ and QJ are all incredibly unlikely give villain's stats and his PF/flop play. [/ QUOTE ] I stated that. But the suited varieties of these hands are a possbility however remote and with a seemingly close decision.. some thought has to extend to them.
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#15
11-15-2005, 02:47 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sb's turn call (rather than raise) makes it more less likely that he has AA and more likely that he has KK. I, therefore, check behind. [/ QUOTE ] i disagree. he could be fearing the set here. its hard for TAGs to 3 bet with an overpair with this type of board and action. I like bet/call on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Jason and I had almost this exact same exchange a minute ago. I agree with silky. [/ QUOTE ] These statements and reads are undoubtedly true and correct but the relevant question is what to do on the river. It is still correct to affirm (this assumes that the only relevant points in question are the KK v AA scenario): That with AA, villain is more likely/apt to raise the turn Now the above must be tempered with the thought that Villain can think that hero hand may be comprised of JJ, QQ, KK, AA while Hero can take QQ off of his list for Villain. Heros hand range, in Villain's eyes, is wider than Villain's hand is in Hero's eyes. The question still remains, will villain pay off with AA? He ought see that with that hand he beats exactly zero hands in Hero's range and chops with 1 hand. Why will he pay off?
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#18
11-15-2005, 02:52 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
Tell me you didn't bet/fold :-p.
I bet/call. I'm sure some extensive combinatorial analysis will come up with the optimal decision here. But really in hands like this it is not possible to do that kind of analysis at the table. The key factors in my mind are that the pot is huge, so he is going to pay off with plenty of hands including some very weak ones, including AA/AJ. He will get here this way some of the time with AK--some TAGs are just overaggressive. He will have KQs some of the time. If he were to sit down and really think about the play of this hand he wouldn't be able to checkraise the river with a hand that you beat. But if he knows that he's against jason_t he may do just that as he is getting 8-1 on a bluff. He might very well checkraise here with KQ for whatever reason after getting all this way. If he checkraises me I know I will see KK the vast majority of the time but I'm certainly not folding. I don't fold sets to aggressive players in huge pots. I do value bet in huge pots.
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#19
11-15-2005, 02:52 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
"The question still remains, will villain pay off with AA?
He ought see that with that hand he beats exactly zero hands in Hero's range and chops with 1 hand. Why will he pay off? " yeah, most (damn near all) people are paying off here...most players (even more so because this is low limit online) are not able to calculate a weighted hand range or even hand read well enough to fold AA on the river heads up in a 16BB pot. even if they are capable, most can't do it in the three second between seeing the K and hitting the call button...
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#20
11-15-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
The question still remains, will villain pay off with AA? He ought see that with that hand he beats exactly zero hands in Hero's range and chops with 1 hand. Why will he pay off? [/ QUOTE ] I think there's a simple answer for this depending on what game it is. In certain games, players have a much more difficult time letting go of AA before showdown. But jason didn't say whether this was the Party 2/4, the Bellagio 4/8, or the Commerce whatever.
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