Interesting recent discussion of FTOP on RGP

[bygmesterf]

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambl...2c08400ecd4cafc

Any thoughts?

[daryn]

thoughts? yeah i think even sklansky himself admits in TOP that the FTOP is not always good in multiway pots.

[ohnonotthat]

There comes a point where each additional caller begins to damage the EV of the best hand in spite of the fact that from their own perspective these "chasers" are making horrendous neg. EV calls. Here is an example. (Note that this concept is not purely theoretical; nothing about the following hand is implausible. While many of the plays that follow are bad none are uncommon - similar plays occur all the time).

*

You raise with A-A UTG.

Next to act 3-bets; next after him caps. If you're not licking your chops you should be; you're going to win this hand more than 2/3s of the time and if the other two raisors have big pairs you should also get good action after the flop. (Obviously you don't know what these two opponents have but, who cares - their hands can't be better than yours).

All of a sudden a calling frenzy breaks out and three more of your opponents call the cap. Seven of you take the flop for 4 bets each. To make the math easier we'll make it a 1-2 game, assume that both blinds were among the three new callers and we'll disregard the rake.

Seven players . . . Pot = $ 28

*

The flop comes Jh 7d 2d.

*

You bet out, and are raised and reraised by the same two who raised preflop.

Having lost so many big pots with A-A you're understandably hesitant to count your chickens too early; J-J could be in the hand of one of the other raisors and you figure to be dead to any diamond but all in all you have to like the situation.

The other three all call and you cap it. Pot = $ 56.

* BTW, this post is not about strategy; there may be some wisdom to not capping it here but the typical player would (as would I) and nobody can say it's a bad play.

The turn is the 2h; the board is now J 7 2 2 - with two flush draws.

You bet out (again, a reasonable albeit possibly not the best play) making for a $ 60 pot and while you still feel you're ahead you don't expect anyone to fold; if they had enough to call the flop they'll likely call here if it only costs one bet and they might call even for two bets or more. You're first thought is, "what the #### have they got" ?



Well, since you asked so nicely I'll tell you.



Player #1 has K-K and is making a terrible play according to the FTOP; he has two outs, and is getting 15-1 on his call. (This is a prototypical FTOP error; being unable to see your hand his call is a no-brainer. A strong case could be made for raising with K-K in this situation but folding would be insane).

Pot = $ 64



Player #2 has Q-Q and much of what applies to K-K would hold true here as well, to some extent moreso; folding would be crazy and raising might be more correct here since Q-Q needs even more protection than K-K, but no matter - he just calls.

Pot = $ 68

*

So far so good . . .

In spite of the fact that the little poker voice is whining about how another A-A is going to get snapped the fact is you profit from both of these calls. You gain even more due to the specific hands they hold; anything other than a King or a Queen or Ace on the river will not only win the hand for you, it should allow you to collect at least one extra bet from both of these hands.

*

Player #3 has 9-9 and calls. Pot = $ 72.

While his call does make you money (and cost him money) it's a coin toss as to whether you actually want him to call. If either you were all-in or if he was after calling you would definitely want him in but the last [river] bet will benefit him more than you. He MIGHT fold if the river is an Ace; he certainly won't raise. You're not folding to any river card and might even lose two bets if the river is a 9 and you bet and get raised.

*

Now it gets interesting.



Any other calls cost you money unless the caller is drawing dead. (Technically a caller with only one out *might* benefit you but with this board it's hard to imagine anyone having exactly one out and the keyword here is "might"; you make next to nothing from anyone who calls with one out unless he is all-in after he calls and even then you don't gain much from his call).

What's that you say ? You don't believe it ? O.K. Read on.



Player #4 has 6-6. You'd almost have to hate money to call with this hand, this board, and two opponents behind you who haven't acted; you could be drawing dead, you could get raised from your left, and even if you are safe on both of these fronts you're a 22-1 'dog and are getting only 18-1 on your call.

Wait, I must have been wrong when I said we don't want any additional callers; we want HIM in, right ?

Wrong !

His call costs us money; not alot but it does hurt us in spite of the fact that it hurts him [more].

Well, no matter; it's his choice and he calls. Pot = $ 76

*

- Are you waiting for the "good" draws to call ?

- Keep waiting; there are none in this hand.



Player #5 has 4h-4d, makes a terrible call in terms of his own EV, yet hurts us when he calls.

Player #6 has 3-3, calls, hurts himself, but also hurts us.

*

Luckily (sigh) there are no other callers - although two guys ran over from across the room and asked for two cards off the top of the deck so they TOO could call :-)

*

If you do the math you'll see that players 4,5 and 6 hurt themselves by calling yet each also hurt us; if the pot were a little larger (which it would be if others had called caps both preflop and on the flop) it would get to the point where a caller with just one out would hurt us. (Ex. 8-7 with an exposed 7 - OR - TWO player each of whom hold a 7 giving each of the one out to HALF of the pot). Keep going and we would get to where a player with A-5 and two outs to half of the pot - a Jack or a 7 - would hurt us by calling even though his call would be among the worst you could imagine from his own perspective).

These plays occur all the time - they are not rare events.

Obviously there is no way to stop them from making these calls, but there are a few ways to stop these calls from hurting you - or at least to minimize the damage these calls do to you and that is to manipulate these loose [bad] players into situations where there calls are atrocious as opposed to just bad. In the above example, if the pot were smaller by just a handful of bets, the calls by players 4 thru 6 would be SO bad they would no longer hurt you and would in fact benefit you. If you eliminate the 6th (and last) caller OR if you had chosen not to cap it preflop the smaller pot that would result would make you happy to have callers; if there is less to lose when you get outdrawan you are more willing to accept the contributions of those who wish to try it.

I won't go into how to go about manipulating your opponents into making even bigger errors - I said this was not about strategy and I'm sure you can figure it out for yourselves.

*

OK - that's all, folks.

Dress warmly, drive carefully and don't forget to tip your waitresses. :-)

*

P.S. For those of you too lazy to do the math to verify that these calls do indeed hurt you - I am too. I'm relying on one of our resident anal-retentive math geeks (and thank G-d we have'em) to post it.

Hm, on second thought, if you're really not able to see almost intuitively that winning a $ 100 pot 80% of the time is better than winning a $ 120 pot 60% of the time - no offense but maybe poker isn't really your true calling.

[macdaddy991]

If you read down, you see that the OP of the RGP post claimed that he had never read TOP. I think he just wanted to feel like a big man and try to disporve something DS wrote.

[mshalen]

In responce to ohnonothat's excellent discussion above - that is why I no longer play limit poker in any form. I now stick to no limit holdem, PLO and PLO8.

(Ooops I still play some stud but just a little and not for stakes of any real size.)

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
If you read down, you see that the OP of the RGP post claimed that he had never read TOP. I think he just wanted to feel like a big man and try to disporve something DS wrote.

[/ QUOTE ]

The FTOP is so well known, that it even has it's own wikipdia article. You don't have to have read something in order to ask questions about it.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you read down, you see that the OP of the RGP post claimed that he had never read TOP. I think he just wanted to feel like a big man and try to disporve something DS wrote.

[/ QUOTE ]
The FTOP is so well known, that it even has it's own wikipdia article. You don't have to have read something in order to ask questions about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
He wasn't asking questions about it, he was explaining why it was incorrect without ever having read it. This is like me writing 2+2= ? on the back of a piece of paper and you telling me why my answer is wrong without knowing what answer I wrote down in the first place.

[Pog0]

A couple players at a low limit game were arguing over the FTOP... tsk tsk... I guess they forgot one of the other fundemental theorems of DON'T ENLIGHTEN THE FISH... they don't need to know that people think about things in poker... it's just another lottery, right? right?