|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
what are the odds?
just curious what the odds of flopping set over set are.
was playing the 20-40NL last night and was on the ass end of set over set 4 times in 8 hours. and no i didn't get away from any of them. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
better than the odds of flopping AA vs AA preflop and KK vs. KK preflop in the space of an hour.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
well if two people have pocket pairs it's 12% times 8% or something, right?
and if 3 people have pocket pairs it's 12% times 16%? is this math right at all? so just take the conditional probability of a pocket pair in each spot (1/17) times the prob. of them flopping a set given you flop a set (and thus there are only 2 cards for them to do it in) so (8%) and multiply that by 9 in a full ring... so if you flop a set, the odds of someone else flopping a set are 72% (1/17) or a little under 5%. that sound right? of course that's purely based on random cards in every spot, so if more people call pre flop raises, what's the likely hood they have a pocket pair? more than 1/17. so let's say people call preflop raises with pocket pairs 1/3 of the time, 2/3 it is suited connectors or AK, AQ hands... then it's more like 1/3 times 8 percent for every preflop caller which is significantly more... |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
thats pretty wrong if one person flops a set then its only 2 cards left to flop a set for the other person.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
wtf are you talking about?
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
lol if you dont understand that...wow. Alright I will make it veryyy simple you have a pair of aces i have a pair of 10s now for you to flop a set over me we BOTH have to set, so now if you flop an ace on the flop that only leaves 2 cards left on the flop (because 3-1=2). so the odds of set over set isnt simply the odds of both setting because we are sharing the board, thats wtf im talking about. got it?
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
[ QUOTE ]
lol if you dont understand that...wow. Alright I will make it veryyy simple you have a pair of aces i have a pair of 10s now for you to flop a set over me we BOTH have to set, so now if you flop an ace on the flop that only leaves 2 cards left on the flop (because 3-1=2). so the odds of set over set isnt simply the odds of both setting because we are sharing the board, thats wtf im talking about. got it? [/ QUOTE ] ok jerkface if you read my post i already said that and if you actually took the time to look at my math i said 12% times 8% now if you don't understand why flopping a set in 3 cards making it 12% makes hitting it in 2 makes it 8% then it seems you're the [censored]. now go post something useful. and maybe with some correct grammar, while you're at it. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
Let's see. Let's take two random pocket pairs: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I'll work on the denominator (total possibilities) first: There are (52-4) 48 remaining cards, so there are 48c3 (48 choose 3) total hand combinations, which means 48*47*46/3*2*1 possible flops or 17,296 possible flops with the remaining cards. Now there are four ways to flop exactly one T and one 6: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + one of 44 other possible cards T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] + one of 44 other possible cards T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + one of 44 other possible cards T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] + one of 44 other possible cards That makes 176 possible hands that have exactly one T and one 6. So the probability of flopping set over set is: 176/17296 or 0.01017576... Translating that into odds, it's 17120:176 against, which reduces to 97.27:1 against. In short, it'll happen about 1 in 98 times when both opponents hold pocket pairs. The answer changes slightly if you want to include the possibility of flopping quads as well. I assume the above logic holds true for any two random pairs. Someone check my math/logic. Garland |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
[ QUOTE ]
Translating that into odds, it's 17120:176 against, which reduces to 97.27:1 against. In short, it'll happen about 1 in 98 times when both opponents hold pocket pairs. [/ QUOTE ] thats [censored] sick. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: what are the odds?
[ QUOTE ]
thats [censored] sick. [/ QUOTE ] At least you got them out of the way for the next couple hundred times... |
|
|