#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
QJ 3 handed facing a weak raise?
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money. You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call. Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in. [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
You're getting ready to play a big pot 3 way out of position with QJ against donks that have both expressed interest in the pot and your call doesn't close the action. That's a tough spot to be in. Minraise either means that they have a hand or they are setting up a bluff. Either way you're going to have a tough time post flop unless you flop well.
|
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money. You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call. Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in. [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call. [/ QUOTE ] I'm assuming that he has a king, which would be the worst case here, because then a queen or jack hitting doesn't help. We need to hit a straight to have the best hand. If he turned over his cards and showed 99 you'd actually have the odds to call because then you could hit an ace, of which there are 3, a queen or jack, of where there are 6, or a 9 of which there are 1. So your odds would then be 3.5:1 and it's an easy call. We can't know that we have 2 overcards to a pair though, so I was assuming that he'd need to hit the straight in order to win. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting ready to play a big pot 3 way out of position with QJ against donks that have both expressed interest in the pot and your call doesn't close the action. That's a tough spot to be in. Minraise either means that they have a hand or they are setting up a bluff. Either way you're going to have a tough time post flop unless you flop well. [/ QUOTE ] With the deep stacks, I don't mind seeing a flop here. Just need to proceed with caution even if you get a piece of it. For example, if the guy bets like he actually has something, just fold the OESD. |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
I hate the mini-reraise pre flop.
I don't like your lead on the flop, it accomplishes nothing (400 into an 1800 pot, yuk!). I prefer pushing when it gets back to you. Villain is way underbetting the pot (seems to be a theme), put him to the test. If called you are only slightly worse than a 2:1 dog to make your hand, and if villain has something less than top pair, you are better still by a lot. (Also, you have backdoor flush possibilities, which adds to your chances if called). I think you should call preflop, and c/r the flop. When I first read (and responded) to this hand I thought you had JdQd, which is a monster draw. The hand you have is still pretty good, though, and a perfect semi-bluffng hand here. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
You have 6 outs for a straight. [/ QUOTE ] I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs, though maybe count it as 7.5 if you want to err on the side of caution. Also, hero has a BDF draw, and his pairing outs may be good. Note to OP, you may want to end the hand history at where you have your qustion in the future and ask what people think you should do at that point. In this case it would be something like: "Villain raises to T1200, Hero ???" Then post the results after some discussion. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You have 6 outs for a straight. [/ QUOTE ] I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs, [/ QUOTE ] Uh huh... you see, basically what this comes down to is that I'm an idiot. You indeed have 8 outs to a straight, making the odds of hitting 4.6:1, making it slightly correct to call, and making me slightly dumber than average. Good times. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
I hate the mini-reraise pre flop. I don't like your lead on the flop [/ QUOTE ] Hero didn't do either of these things. |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Should I have called this flop bet and chased?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I hate the mini-reraise pre flop. I don't like your lead on the flop [/ QUOTE ] Hero didn't do either of these things. [/ QUOTE ] DOH! I was thinking he was the dcr guy. Non converted hands hurt my brain. Edit - and his screen name is the same as his 2+2 name. I am so friggin observant. Meh, more coffee!! |
|
|