stupid 1010 hand

[Victor]

throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 combos of A9s. If he plays like this 100% of the time with that hand, then you can just barely call. If you refuse to believe he will play AK or A9o this way as little as 5%, then yes, a river fold is good.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, a river fold is good

[/ QUOTE ]

sweet, im glad we agree.

[krishanleong]

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people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Who is the 3rd - krish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ayup.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

preflop is fine. Postflop is fine. he'll show you a small pp often enough to call the river.

Krishan

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Now it's true that we can't say that with absolute certainty. But given enough hands with player types like this we can begin to estimate how many combos of a9 an opponent could have. I'd say less than 1.

Krishan

[TStoneMBD]

hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

i cant fold this on the river. there are too many hands he could have. i understand why youd want to fold but im just not liking it. hes not going to put you on TT+ since you didnt cap preflop so he will often have a 9. even if you didnt pick up the flush draw on the turn im taking this hand to the showdown.

another reason why you cap preflop is that when players play back at you after youve coldcapped its because youre beat and can fold. here you cant.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i stoved it.

button has 35% of hands.....21.5
sb has 99, ajs, kqs, ajo....43
i have 1010.................35.5

i will willingly give up a few % of equity to protect my hand and get away for cheap when im clearly behind.

the equity is misleading bc it counts when flops come ak4 and i river a 10. clearly i wont stick around for that so that equity is not realized.

edit to add that my opponent is always sticking around to the river for overs. by capping now the button will only be facing one bet on the flop as well and will call with overs. so, even when ahead preflop, i will be dodging 6-12 outs on the turn and 6 more on the river.

[Catt]

The only info we have is 8 pfr over only 400 hands. We have no idea (other than what the stats say) how he reacts to blind steal situations; what he might think of button; what he might think of us; what has been happening at the table; if he's down / up feeling lucky / feeling run over; what he's doing while playing; what mood he's in, etc., etc.

I make folds on the river here like these. I think most of the time they are good folds; I'm sure some of the time I'm wrong, but I think I'm making good decisions long-term on fold or call. I'm not saying that the stats are meaningless or we must always call here (because I do not think that is close to true). However, based on the info given in the OP and then in subsequent posts, I don't think this should be folded. When I do make a fold like this, I don't post it because, while I may believe it was the best play and mayh continue to so believe upon a post-session review, I'm either unable to convey that info adequately in a post for someone who was not there, or I am able to convey it and it either is "good fold" or "I wouldn't fold" -- i.e., nothgin good really comes from posting it. Victor may have had enough extraneous info to make this a good fold; but absent that info (which may require presence at the table to truly appreciate it) I don't think I could argue as an outside observer that this should be a fold by any noteworthy margin (and I think there are decent reasons to make a close call if, as I suspect, he's playing in a game where he will likely play against this specific opp with some frequency).