Stud8 - Day 5, Hand 8

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

No offense, but this contradicts your earlier reply to me. This shows that given the 6th street board and dead cards, Hero wins the high side more than half the time, yet you think he can fold on the river getting almost 7:1.

Wow.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Fourth Street:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 6h 3d 9h 8h - ts 2h 4h 6d - 2c 4c 8c 5d / qs js 5h 5c 9s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
3d 9h 8h 6h 32232 192120 307811 69 38818 89670 176 0.254
Ts 6d 4h 2h 30024 116805 383054 141 105267 41339 955 0.237
8c 4c 2c 5d 132464 190919 308979 102 297462 83992 791 0.509

Sixth Street:

pokenum -7s8 6h 3d 9h 8h 4d 2s - ts 2h 4h 6d qd qc - 2c 4c 8c 5d jc jd / qs js 5h 5c 9s ah qh
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 17550 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2s 4d 3d 9h 8h 6h 475 475 17075 0 14775 2775 0 0.434
Ts Qc Qd 6d 4h 2h 0 9549 8001 0 0 0 0 0.272
Jc 8c 4c 2c Jd 5d 925 7526 10024 0 2775 5025 0 0.293

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that the equity values would be bad. I was trying to get the other hands to fold. Getting the 8-low draw to fold on 4th would have knocked out the leading low and put me in the best chance to win low. And the check-raise on 6th was to try to get rid of the JJ hand so that I had a much better chance of taking high.

This was a misapplication of betting to drive players out (because the situation suggested that the chances of success relative to the pot size is too small) and not a misapplication of betting for value.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but this contradicts your earlier reply to me. This shows that given the 6th street board and dead cards, Hero wins the high side more than half the time, yet you think he can fold on the river getting almost 7:1.

Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]
Won indeed. I gave the opposition too much credit. Seat 2's call on fourth street caused me to give him credit for a four-flush, four-straight, or . . . well [censored], I dunno, at least a PAIR or something. Therefore his jamming sixth only made sense to me if he had two small hearts in the hole or something like 76 (still a bad call on third, but I've seen worse).

That puts us in worse shape than we actually were but it is actually much worse than that if we give Seat 7 some credit as well. Not because they will often have us beat after the action thus far (they won't), but because if they were any good at all they would have raised this river. How comfortable would you feel calling Seat 7's raise? Or even worse, what if Seat 2 popped it back? Still in love with those queens?

I think raising the river is a much better idea than calling it given the bloated size of the pot. I thought you could fold because I was misinformed about the size of the pot and didn't bother to stop and think. 14:1 not 7:1. Check/folding sixth is much better than check-raising. And even getting 14:1 a fold is right if you give Seat 7 credit for being aggressive/good enough to raise the river regardless of what he catches (as he should).

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that the equity values would be bad. I was trying to get the other hands to fold. Getting the 8-low draw to fold on 4th would have knocked out the leading low and put me in the best chance to win low.

[/ QUOTE ]
No good player will fold a 4-low on fourth in this situation. Doing so would be a mistake. If anything he ought to raise to try and get it heads-up so that he'll have a better chance to take the high half with a pair of sixes or something. Given that you have absolutely no fold equity ever in the history of the world or the foreseeable future, putting money into the pot on fourth is akin to lighting it on fire.
[ QUOTE ]
And the check-raise on 6th was to try to get rid of the JJ hand so that I had a much better chance of taking high.

[/ QUOTE ]
This would be an excellent play if the pot were bigger. It is not out of the question that Seat 7 has jacks up and they should definitely fold that hand to your check-raise. Unfortunately, you are risking four bets with this play to win half of a small pot. That is not worth it. The pot must be large for this play to be correct.
[ QUOTE ]
This was a misapplication of betting to drive players out (because the situation suggested that the chances of success relative to the pot size is too small) and not a misapplication of betting for value.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand this, but what I am trying to make you understand is that situations where betting or raising a hand in order to drive players out is correct are extraordinarily rare.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I thought you could fold because I was misinformed about the size of the pot and didn't bother to stop and think. 14:1 not 7:1.

14:1 for the entire pot, 7:1 for the high side. Hero is playing for half the pot most of the time.